气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Rising future tropical cyclone-induced extreme winds in the Mekong River Basin

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DOI	10.1016/j.scib.2019.11.022
	Rising future tropical cyclone-induced extreme winds in the Mekong River Basin
	Chen A.; Emanuel K.A.; Chen D.; Lin C.; Zhang F.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	20959273
起始页码	419
结束页码	424
卷号	65 期号:5
英文摘要	The societal impact of extreme winds induced by tropical cyclones (TCs) is a major concern in the Mekong River Basin (MRB). Though no clear trend of landfalling TC intensity along the Vietnam coastline has been observed since the 1970s, climate models project an increasing TC intensity in the 21st century over the Western North Pacific, which is the primary TC source region influencing the MRB. Yet, how future TC activities will affect extreme winds quantitatively in the MRB remains unclear. By employing a novel dynamical downscaling technique using a specialized, coupled ocean-atmospheric model, shorter return periods of maximum wind speed in the MRB for 2081–2100 compared with 1981–2000 are projected based on five global climate models under the RCP8.5 scenario, suggesting increases in the future tropical cyclone intensity. The results point to consistently elevated future TC-related risks that may jeopardize sustainable development, disrupt food supply, and exacerbate conflicts in the region and beyond. © 2019 Science China Press
关键词	Extreme wind Mekong River Basin Return period Tropical cyclone
英文关键词	Climate models; Food supply; Rivers; Storms; Tropics; Watersheds; Wind; Dynamical downscaling; Extreme winds; Global climate model; Mekong river basins; Return periods; Tropical cyclone; Tropical cyclone intensity; Western North Pacific; Hurricanes
语种	英语
来源期刊	Science Bulletin
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/206999
作者单位	Regional Climate Group, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, 40530, Sweden; Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139, United States; Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science, Center for Advanced Data Assimilation and Predictability Techniques, the Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Chen A.,Emanuel K.A.,Chen D.,et al. Rising future tropical cyclone-induced extreme winds in the Mekong River Basin[J],2020,65(5).
APA	Chen A.,Emanuel K.A.,Chen D.,Lin C.,&Zhang F..(2020).Rising future tropical cyclone-induced extreme winds in the Mekong River Basin.Science Bulletin,65(5).
MLA	Chen A.,et al."Rising future tropical cyclone-induced extreme winds in the Mekong River Basin".Science Bulletin 65.5(2020).