气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Past abrupt changes, tipping points and cascading impacts in the Earth system

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DOI	10.1038/s41561-021-00790-5
	Past abrupt changes, tipping points and cascading impacts in the Earth system
	Brovkin V.; Brook E.; Williams J.W.; Bathiany S.; Lenton T.M.; Barton M.; DeConto R.M.; Donges J.F.; Ganopolski A.; McManus J.; Praetorius S.; de Vernal A.; Abe-Ouchi A.; Cheng H.; Claussen M.; Crucifix M.; Gallopín G.; Iglesias V.; Kaufman D.S.; Kleinen T.; Lambert F.; van der Leeuw S.; Liddy H.; Loutre M.-F.; McGee D.; Rehfeld K.; Rhodes R.; Seddon A.W.R.; Trauth M.H.; Vanderveken L.; Yu Z.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	17520894
起始页码	550
结束页码	558
卷号	14 期号:8
英文摘要	The geological record shows that abrupt changes in the Earth system can occur on timescales short enough to challenge the capacity of human societies to adapt to environmental pressures. In many cases, abrupt changes arise from slow changes in one component of the Earth system that eventually pass a critical threshold, or tipping point, after which impacts cascade through coupled climate–ecological–social systems. The chance of detecting abrupt changes and tipping points increases with the length of observations. The geological record provides the only long-term information we have on the conditions and processes that can drive physical, ecological and social systems into new states or organizational structures that may be irreversible within human time frames. Here, we use well-documented abrupt changes of the past 30 kyr to illustrate how their impacts cascade through the Earth system. We review useful indicators of upcoming abrupt changes, or early warning signals, and provide a perspective on the contributions of palaeoclimate science to the understanding of abrupt changes in the Earth system. © 2021, Springer Nature Limited.
语种	英语
来源期刊	Nature Geoscience
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/206868
作者单位	Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany; CEN, Universität Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany; College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, United States; Department of Geography and Center for Climatic Research, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, United States; Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS), Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon, Hamburg, Germany; Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom; School of Human Evolution and Social Change and School of Complex Adaptive Systems, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, United States; Department of Geosciences, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA, United States; Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany; Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden; Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States; Geology, Minerals, Energy and Geophysics Science Center, US Geological Surv...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Brovkin V.,Brook E.,Williams J.W.,et al. Past abrupt changes, tipping points and cascading impacts in the Earth system[J],2021,14(8).
APA	Brovkin V..,Brook E..,Williams J.W..,Bathiany S..,Lenton T.M..,...&Yu Z..(2021).Past abrupt changes, tipping points and cascading impacts in the Earth system.Nature Geoscience,14(8).
MLA	Brovkin V.,et al."Past abrupt changes, tipping points and cascading impacts in the Earth system".Nature Geoscience 14.8(2021).