气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Increased typhoon activity in the Pacific deep tropics driven by Little Ice Age circulation changes

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DOI	10.1038/s41561-020-00656-2
	Increased typhoon activity in the Pacific deep tropics driven by Little Ice Age circulation changes
	Bramante J.F.; Ford M.R.; Kench P.S.; Ashton A.D.; Toomey M.R.; Sullivan R.M.; Karnauskas K.B.; Ummenhofer C.C.; Donnelly J.P.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	17520894
起始页码	806
结束页码	811
卷号	13 期号:12
英文摘要	The instrumental record reveals that tropical cyclone activity is sensitive to oceanic and atmospheric variability on inter-annual and decadal scales. However, our understanding of the influence of climate on tropical cyclone behaviour is restricted by the short historical record and the sparseness of prehistorical reconstructions, particularly in the western North Pacific, where coastal communities suffer loss of life and livelihood from typhoons annually. Here, to explore past regional typhoon dynamics, we reconstruct three millennia of deep tropical North Pacific cyclogenesis. Combined with existing records, our reconstruction demonstrates that low-baseline typhoon activity prior to 1350 ce was followed by an interval of frequent storms during the Little Ice Age. This pattern, concurrent with hydroclimate proxy variability, suggests a centennial-scale link between Pacific hydroclimate and tropical cyclone climatology. An ensemble of global climate models demonstrates a migration of the Pacific Walker circulation and variability in two Pacific climate modes during the Little Ice Age, which probably contributed to enhanced tropical cyclone activity in the tropical western North Pacific. In the next century, projected changes to the Pacific Walker circulation and expansion of the tropics will invert these Little Ice Age hydroclimate trends, potentially reducing typhoon activity in the deep tropical Pacific. © 2020, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
英文关键词	annual variation; global climate; historical record; Little Ice Age; livelihood; tropical cyclone; typhoon; Walker circulation; Pacific Ocean; Pacific Ocean (North); Pomatiopsis californica
语种	英语
来源期刊	Nature Geoscience
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/206752
作者单位	Department of Geology and Geophysics, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, United States; Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, United States; School of Environment, The University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand; Department of Earth Sciences, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, BC, Canada; US Geological Survey, Florence Bascom Geoscience Center, Reston, VA, United States; Department of Atmospheric and Ocean Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, United States; Department of Physical Oceanography, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Bramante J.F.,Ford M.R.,Kench P.S.,et al. Increased typhoon activity in the Pacific deep tropics driven by Little Ice Age circulation changes[J],2020,13(12).
APA	Bramante J.F..,Ford M.R..,Kench P.S..,Ashton A.D..,Toomey M.R..,...&Donnelly J.P..(2020).Increased typhoon activity in the Pacific deep tropics driven by Little Ice Age circulation changes.Nature Geoscience,13(12).
MLA	Bramante J.F.,et al."Increased typhoon activity in the Pacific deep tropics driven by Little Ice Age circulation changes".Nature Geoscience 13.12(2020).