气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Flood risk mapping using uncertainty propagation analysis on a peak discharge: case study of the Mille Iles River in Quebec

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DOI	10.1007/s11069-021-04583-2
	Flood risk mapping using uncertainty propagation analysis on a peak discharge: case study of the Mille Iles River in Quebec
	Zokagoa J.-M.; Soulaïmani A.; Dupuis P.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0921030X
起始页码	285
结束页码	310
卷号	107 期号:1
英文摘要	This study uses uncertainty propagation in real flood events to derive a probabilistic flood map. The flood event of spring 2017 in Quebec was selected for this analysis, with the computational domain being a reach of the Mille Iles River. The main parameter deemed uncertain in this work is the upstream water discharge; a given value of this discharge is utilized to build a random sample of 500 scenarios using the Latin hypercube sampling method. Simulations were run using CuteFlow-Cuda, an in-house finite volume-based shallow water equations solver, to derive the statistical mean and the standard deviation of the free surface elevation and the water depth at each node. For this real flood case, the initial interface flux scheme had to be adapted, combining a developed version of the scheme introduced by Harten, Lax and van Leer at wet interfaces and the Lax–Friedrichs scheme with additional free surface corrections for wet and dry transitions. Comparisons with results obtained from TELEMAC and from in situ observations show generally close predictions, and overall good agreement with observations. Errors of the free surface prediction relative to observations are less than 2.75%. A map based on the standard deviation of the water depth is presented to enhance the areas most prone to flooding. Finally, a flood map is produced, showing the flooded inhabited areas near the municipalities of Saint-Eustache and Deux Montagnes around the reach of the Mille Iles River as it overflows its natural bed. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V. part of Springer Nature.
关键词	Free surface flow Probabilistic flood map Shallow water equations Uncertainty propagation
英文关键词	flooding; free surface flow; mapping method; peak discharge; probability; risk assessment; shallow-water equation; uncertainty analysis; Canada; Quebec [Canada]; Quebec [Quebec (PRV)]
语种	英语
来源期刊	Natural Hazards
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/206731
作者单位	Mechanical Engineering, École de technologie supérieure, 1100 Notre-Dame W, Montréal, QC H3C 1K3, Canada; Bureau de projet de gestion des risques d’inondation, Direction générale, Communauté Métropolitaine de Montréal, 1002 Sherbrooke W., Bureau 2400, Montréal, QC H3A 3L6, Canada; Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Laboratory of Mechanics and Energetics, University of Felix Houphouet Boigny, Abidjan, 22 BP 582, Cote d'Ivoire
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zokagoa J.-M.,Soulaïmani A.,Dupuis P.. Flood risk mapping using uncertainty propagation analysis on a peak discharge: case study of the Mille Iles River in Quebec[J],2021,107(1).
APA	Zokagoa J.-M.,Soulaïmani A.,&Dupuis P..(2021).Flood risk mapping using uncertainty propagation analysis on a peak discharge: case study of the Mille Iles River in Quebec.Natural Hazards,107(1).
MLA	Zokagoa J.-M.,et al."Flood risk mapping using uncertainty propagation analysis on a peak discharge: case study of the Mille Iles River in Quebec".Natural Hazards 107.1(2021).