气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): A novel displacement prediction method using gated recurrent unit model with time series analysis in the Erdaohe landslide

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s11069-020-04337-6
	A novel displacement prediction method using gated recurrent unit model with time series analysis in the Erdaohe landslide
	Zhang Y.-G.; Tang J.; He Z.-Y.; Tan J.; Li C.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0921030X
起始页码	783
结束页码	813
卷号	105 期号:1
英文摘要	Landslides are natural phenomena, causing serious fatalities and negative impacts on socioeconomic. The Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) area of China is characterized by more prone to landslides for the rainfall and variation of reservoir level. Prediction of landslide displacement is favorable for the establishment of early geohazard warning system. Conventional machine learning methods as forecasting models often suffer gradient disappearance and explosion, or training is slow. Hence, a dynamic method for displacement prediction of the step-wise landslide is provided, which is based on gated recurrent unit (GRU) model with time series analysis. The establishment process of this method is interpreted and applied to Erdaohe landslide induced by multi-factors in TGR area: the accumulative displacements of landslide are obtained by the global positioning system; the measured accumulative displacements is decomposed into the trend and periodic displacements by moving average method; the predictive trend displacement is fitted by a cubic polynomial; and the periodic displacement is obtained by the GRU model training. And the support vector machine (SVM) model and GRU model are used as comparisons. It is verified that the proposed method can quite accurately predict the displacement of the landslide, which benefits for effective early geological hazards warning system. Moreover, the proposed method has higher prediction accuracy than the SVM model. © 2020, Springer Nature B.V.
关键词	Displacement prediction Gated recurrent unit model Global positioning system (GPS) technology Moving average method Step-wise landslide
英文关键词	displacement; early warning system; GPS; landslide; machine learning; mapping method; prediction; time series analysis; China; Three Gorges Reservoir
语种	英语
来源期刊	Natural Hazards
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/206719
作者单位	Department of Geotechnical Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai, 200092, China; School of Resources and Geosciences, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou, 221000, China; China Geological Survey, Beijing, 100037, China; Xiamen Xijiao Hard Science Industrial Technology Research Institute Co., Ltd, Xiamen, 316000, China; College of Civil Engineering, Huaqiao University, Xiamen, 316000, China; School of Civil Engineering, Central South University, Changsha, 410083, China; School of Mechanical Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin, 300072, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang Y.-G.,Tang J.,He Z.-Y.,et al. A novel displacement prediction method using gated recurrent unit model with time series analysis in the Erdaohe landslide[J],2021,105(1).
APA	Zhang Y.-G.,Tang J.,He Z.-Y.,Tan J.,&Li C..(2021).A novel displacement prediction method using gated recurrent unit model with time series analysis in the Erdaohe landslide.Natural Hazards,105(1).
MLA	Zhang Y.-G.,et al."A novel displacement prediction method using gated recurrent unit model with time series analysis in the Erdaohe landslide".Natural Hazards 105.1(2021).