气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): How much uncertainty does the choice of data transforming method brings to heat risk mapping? Evidence from China

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DOI	10.1007/s11069-020-04466-y
	How much uncertainty does the choice of data transforming method brings to heat risk mapping? Evidence from China
	Zhang W.; Zhao Q.; Pei M.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0921030X
起始页码	349
结束页码	373
卷号	106 期号:1
英文摘要	Abstract: Increasing extreme heat events have threatened human health seriously in the context of global climate change. As an important policy tool to resist heat-related risks, growing attentions have been paid on heat risk mapping researches in recent years. Unfortunately, the uncertainties caused by the subjective choice of data transforming method remain unclear. This study compared four data transforming methods and investigated the impacts of data transforming method selection on the outputs of heat risk assessment and mapping. The results indicated that the choice of data transforming methods will greatly affect the stability of heat risk mapping outputs and is likely to mislead decision makers. Only 4.56% of the counties that their heat risk levels derived from four data transforming methods remain consistent. The stability of heat risk mapping output was highly relevant to the population density. Regions with higher population density usually have lower stability for its mapping results. The "Number" method and the "Total PD" method are recommended for their satisfactory validation accuracy and unambiguous policy orientation; while the "Proportion" method is not recommended for its poor validation accuracy and vague policy guiding. Graphic abstract: [Figure not available: see fulltext.] © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V. part of Springer Nature.
关键词	China Data transforming method Demographic indicator Heat risk mapping Uncertainty
英文关键词	accuracy assessment; climate change; global change; health risk; heat wave; model validation; population density; risk assessment; stability analysis; uncertainty analysis; China; Indicator indicator
语种	英语
来源期刊	Natural Hazards
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/206712
作者单位	School of Geographical Sciences, Southwest University, Chongqing, 400715, China; School of Geographical Sciences, State Cultivation Base of Eco-Agriculture for Southwest Mountainous Land, Southwest University, Chongqing, 400715, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang W.,Zhao Q.,Pei M.. How much uncertainty does the choice of data transforming method brings to heat risk mapping? Evidence from China[J],2021,106(1).
APA	Zhang W.,Zhao Q.,&Pei M..(2021).How much uncertainty does the choice of data transforming method brings to heat risk mapping? Evidence from China.Natural Hazards,106(1).
MLA	Zhang W.,et al."How much uncertainty does the choice of data transforming method brings to heat risk mapping? Evidence from China".Natural Hazards 106.1(2021).