气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Application of generalized Pareto distribution for modeling aleatory variability of ground motion

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DOI	10.1007/s11069-021-04809-3
	Application of generalized Pareto distribution for modeling aleatory variability of ground motion
	Zhang M.; Pan H.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0921030X
起始页码	2971
结束页码	2989
卷号	108 期号:3
英文摘要	The lognormal distribution is commonly used to characterize the aleatory variability of ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). However, this approach often leads to results without actual physical meaning at low exceedance probabilities. In this paper, we discuss how to calculate PSHA with a low exceedance probability. Peak ground acceleration records from the NGA-West2 database and 15,493 residuals calculated by Campbell-Bozorgnia using the NGA-West2 GMPE were applied to analyze the tail shape of the residuals. The results showed that the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) captured the characteristics of residuals in the tail better than the lognormal distribution. Further study showed that the shapes of the tails of the distributions of residuals with different magnitudes varied significantly due to the heteroscedasticity of the magnitude; the distribution of residuals with larger magnitudes had a smaller upper limit on the right side. Moreover, the residuals of the three magnitude ranges given in this study were more consistent with the GPD of different parameters at the tail than the lognormal distribution and the GPD fitted by all the residuals, leading to a bounded PSHA hazard curve. Therefore, the lognormal distribution is more representative up to a determined threshold, and the GPD fitted to the residuals of three ranges of magnitude better characterizes the tail for PSHA calculation. © 2021, The Author(s).
关键词	Generalized Pareto distribution Ground-motion prediction equation Peak ground acceleration Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis
语种	英语
来源期刊	Natural Hazards
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/206708
作者单位	Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, No. 5 Minzu Daxue Nanlu Road, Beijing, 100081, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang M.,Pan H.. Application of generalized Pareto distribution for modeling aleatory variability of ground motion[J],2021,108(3).
APA	Zhang M.,&Pan H..(2021).Application of generalized Pareto distribution for modeling aleatory variability of ground motion.Natural Hazards,108(3).
MLA	Zhang M.,et al."Application of generalized Pareto distribution for modeling aleatory variability of ground motion".Natural Hazards 108.3(2021).