气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): A simple Monte Carlo method for estimating the chance of a cyclone impact

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s11069-021-04505-2
	A simple Monte Carlo method for estimating the chance of a cyclone impact
	Xie X.; Xie B.; Cheng J.; Chu Q.; Dooling T.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0921030X
起始页码	2573
结束页码	2582
卷号	107 期号:3
英文摘要	Cyclones endanger life and cause great financial impact on interior and coastal regions through the destruction of buildings and land. Governments need to have a way of estimating the chance of different regions being impacted by a cyclone. The goal of this paper is to use big data to better predict future cyclone impacts. Large cyclone data sets from the CMA Tropical Cyclone Data Center are used in the analysis. By using big data analysis techniques, long-term patterns in cyclone locations and size can be revealed. The Hausdorff distance is used to determine overall changes in cyclone positions decade by decade. Monte Carlo techniques estimate the probability of a region being impacted by a cyclone any given year. This is done by creating random data sets that mimic long-term patterns in cyclone position and radii. It will be shown that any region can be assigned a probability of cyclone impact purely on large historical data sets. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V. part of Springer Nature.
关键词	Cyclone Impact Probability
英文关键词	cyclone; data set; Monte Carlo analysis; prediction; probability
语种	英语
来源期刊	Natural Hazards
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/206674
作者单位	School of Mathematics and Statistics, Hunan University of Technology and Business, Changsha, 410205, China; Institute of Big Data and Internet Innovation, Hunan University of Technology and Business, Changsha, 410205, China; University of North Carolina Pembroke, Pembroke, NC 28372, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Xie X.,Xie B.,Cheng J.,et al. A simple Monte Carlo method for estimating the chance of a cyclone impact[J],2021,107(3).
APA	Xie X.,Xie B.,Cheng J.,Chu Q.,&Dooling T..(2021).A simple Monte Carlo method for estimating the chance of a cyclone impact.Natural Hazards,107(3).
MLA	Xie X.,et al."A simple Monte Carlo method for estimating the chance of a cyclone impact".Natural Hazards 107.3(2021).