气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): A novel agent-based model for tsunami evacuation simulation and risk assessment

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s11069-020-04389-8
	A novel agent-based model for tsunami evacuation simulation and risk assessment
	Wang Z.; Jia G.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0921030X
起始页码	2045
结束页码	2071
卷号	105 期号:2
英文摘要	Tsunami evacuation is an effective way to save lives from the near-field tsunami. Realistic evacuation simulation can provide valuable information for accurate evacuation risk assessment and effective evacuation planning. Agent-based modeling is ideal for tsunami evacuation simulation due to its capability of capturing the emergent phenomena and modeling the individual-level interactions among agents and the agents’ interactions with the environment. However, existing models usually neglect or simplify some important factors and/or mechanisms in tsunami evacuation. For example, uncertainties in seismic damages to the transportation network are not probabilistically considered (e.g., by simply removing the damaged links (roads/bridges) from the network). Typically a relatively small population (i.e., evacuees) is considered (due to computational challenges) while neglecting population mobility. These simplifications may lead to inaccurate estimation of evacuation risk. Usually, only single traffic mode (e.g., on foot or by car) is considered, while pedestrian speed adjustment and multi-modal evacuation (e.g., on foot and by car) are not considered concurrently. Also, pedestrian–vehicle interaction is usually neglected in the multi-modal evacuation. To address the above limitations, this study proposes a novel and more realistic agent-based tsunami evacuation model for tsunami evacuation simulation and risk assessment. Uncertainties in seismic damages to all links in the transportation network as well as uncertainties in other evacuation parameters are explicitly modeled and considered. A novel and more realistic multi-modal evacuation model is proposed that explicitly considers the pedestrian–vehicle interaction, walking speed variability, and speed adjustment for both the pedestrian and car according to traffic density. In addition, several different population sizes are used to model population mobility and its impact on tsunami evacuation risk. The proposed model is applied within a simulation-based framework to assess the tsunami evacuation risk assessment for Seaside, Oregon. © 2020, Springer Nature B.V.
关键词	Agent-based model Pedestrian–vehicle interaction Risk assessment Seismic damage Transportation network Tsunami evacuation
语种	英语
来源期刊	Natural Hazards
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/206654
作者单位	Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wang Z.,Jia G.. A novel agent-based model for tsunami evacuation simulation and risk assessment[J],2021,105(2).
APA	Wang Z.,&Jia G..(2021).A novel agent-based model for tsunami evacuation simulation and risk assessment.Natural Hazards,105(2).
MLA	Wang Z.,et al."A novel agent-based model for tsunami evacuation simulation and risk assessment".Natural Hazards 105.2(2021).