气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Quarterly PM2.5 prediction using a novel seasonal grey model and its further application in health effects and economic loss assessment: evidences from Shanghai and Tianjin, China

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s11069-021-04614-y
	Quarterly PM2.5 prediction using a novel seasonal grey model and its further application in health effects and economic loss assessment: evidences from Shanghai and Tianjin, China
	Wang J.; Du P.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0921030X
起始页码	889
结束页码	909
卷号	107 期号:1
英文摘要	Previous research only focused on PM2.5 prediction without considering its further application or just evaluated the past years' health effects and economic losses caused by PM2.5 without studying the future scenarios. Thus, a novel hybrid system using a seasonal grey model with the fractional order accumulation, called SFGM (1, 1), and health economic loss assessment model was developed in this study, which can not only perform quarterly PM2.5 prediction, but also estimate its health effects and economic losses. The results indicated that (1) the designed SFGM (1, 1) can not only reflect the seasonal fluctuation, but also predict the seasonal PM2.5 concentrations with higher prediction accuracy in both out-and-in-samples than comparison models. (2) The total economic losses in 2020 of Shanghai and Tianjin will be 6867.25 million yuan (95% CI: 3072.34–10704.47) and 4869.20 million yuan (95% CI: 2194.50–7532.00), respectively, showing that Shanghai will suffer bigger economic losses than Tianjin. (3) The economic loss caused by the premature deaths attributable to PM2.5 is the largest, accounting for more than 70% of the total economic loss. Finally, the findings can help policymakers to formulate more policies and take effective measures to improve public awareness of environmental protection. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V. part of Springer Nature.
关键词	Economic loss assessment Health effects Quarterly PM2.5 prediction Seasonal grey models
英文关键词	accuracy assessment; comparative study; economic analysis; economic impact; hazard assessment; health impact; particulate matter; prediction; seasonal variation; China; Shanghai; Tianjin
语种	英语
来源期刊	Natural Hazards
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/206641
作者单位	School of Statistics, Dongbei University of Finance and Economics, Dalian, Liaoning 116025, China; School of Management, Xi′an Jiaotong University, Xi′an, 710049, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wang J.,Du P.. Quarterly PM2.5 prediction using a novel seasonal grey model and its further application in health effects and economic loss assessment: evidences from Shanghai and Tianjin, China[J],2021,107(1).
APA	Wang J.,&Du P..(2021).Quarterly PM2.5 prediction using a novel seasonal grey model and its further application in health effects and economic loss assessment: evidences from Shanghai and Tianjin, China.Natural Hazards,107(1).
MLA	Wang J.,et al."Quarterly PM2.5 prediction using a novel seasonal grey model and its further application in health effects and economic loss assessment: evidences from Shanghai and Tianjin, China".Natural Hazards 107.1(2021).