气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Risk variation of reservoir regulation during flood season based on bivariate statistical approach under climate change: a case study in the Chengbihe reservoir, China

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DOI	10.1007/s11069-021-04746-1
	Risk variation of reservoir regulation during flood season based on bivariate statistical approach under climate change: a case study in the Chengbihe reservoir, China
	Wang D.; Wang D.; Mo C.; Du Y.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0921030X
起始页码	1585
结束页码	1608
卷号	108 期号:2
英文摘要	The risk analysis of reservoir regulation in the flood season is crucial and provides the valuable information for reservoir flood control, safety operation, and decision making, especially under climate change. The purpose of this study is to propose a framework for reasonably estimating the variation of reservoir regulation risk including the dam extreme risk and the overtopping risk during the flood season under climate change. The framework consists of an integrated diagnostic system for detecting the climate abrupt change time, a copula function-based bivariate statistical approach for modeling the dependence between the flood peak and flood volume, a Monte Carlo simulation for generating numerous random flood peak–volume pairs, and a risk calculation model for routing the design flood hydrographs to obtain the frequency curve of the maximum water level reached in front of dam and evaluating the reservoir regulation risk. The methodology was implemented in the Chengbihe reservoir in south China by using the 55-year (1963–2017) hydrometeorological data, including temperature, evaporation, precipitation, and streamflow, in the flood season. Results show that the hydrometeorological series during the flood season changed abruptly in 1992 and the entire data can be divided into two periods (1963–1992 and 1993–2017). The dam extreme risk and overtopping risk during the two periods are assessed, respectively, and a comparison analysis is made based on different flood limit water-level schemes (185.00–188.50 m). It demonstrates that both the dam extreme risk and the dam overtopping risk increase under the influence of climate change. The dam extreme risk increases by 22.91–95.03%, while the climate change-induced increase in the dam overtopping risk is between 38.62 and 123.59%, which indicates that the dam overtopping risk is more sensitive to climate change than the dam extreme risk. The risk evaluations in the study are of great significance in the safety operation and risk management of reservoirs under future climate change. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V.
关键词	Climate change Copula function Dam extreme risk Dam overtopping risk Design flood hydrographs Risk analysis
语种	英语
来源期刊	Natural Hazards
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/206638
作者单位	School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510275, China; College of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Guangxi University, Nanning, 530004, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wang D.,Wang D.,Mo C.,et al. Risk variation of reservoir regulation during flood season based on bivariate statistical approach under climate change: a case study in the Chengbihe reservoir, China[J],2021,108(2).
APA	Wang D.,Wang D.,Mo C.,&Du Y..(2021).Risk variation of reservoir regulation during flood season based on bivariate statistical approach under climate change: a case study in the Chengbihe reservoir, China.Natural Hazards,108(2).
MLA	Wang D.,et al."Risk variation of reservoir regulation during flood season based on bivariate statistical approach under climate change: a case study in the Chengbihe reservoir, China".Natural Hazards 108.2(2021).