气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Analysis of historical drought and flood characteristics of Hengshui during the period 1649

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s11069-021-04769-8
	Analysis of historical drought and flood characteristics of Hengshui during the period 1649–2018: a typical city in North China
	Sun J.; Wang X.; Yin Y.; Shahid S.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0921030X
起始页码	2081
结束页码	2099
卷号	108 期号:2
英文摘要	The objective of this study was to reconstruct the long-term drought and flood time series to analyze their changing characteristics in Hengshui City of North China. Disaster records of the city for 550 years (1649–2018) were collected from different sources and sorted to reconstruct the sequences of droughts and floods. Advanced statistical methods for climate data analysis, including the Mann-Kendall test, Sen's slope estimator, Morlet wavelet analysis, mutation point tests, and Rescaled range analysis, were used to analyze the historical changes and predict the direction of possible future changes in droughts and floods. The results showed an increased frequency of droughts and a decreased frequency of floods in Hengshui City, making drought occurrence significantly higher than flood occurrence in the twentieth century. The solar activity cycle of 11-year and its multiple showed the association with 10–15 years and 25 years cycles of droughts and floods, respectively. The mutation points in drought and flood sequences during 1559–1568 and 1909–1918 showed insignificant downward (upward) and upward (downward) trends, respectively, in the drought (flood) subsequence before and after the mutation point. The rescaled range analysis revealed an insignificant decreasing trend in droughts and the continuation of the present decreasing trend in floods in the forthcoming years. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V.
关键词	Change characteristics Drought and flood grade sequence Future trend Hengshui City Typical region of North China
语种	英语
来源期刊	Natural Hazards
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/206589
作者单位	College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, No. 1, Xikang Road, Nanjing, 210098, China; State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing, 210029, China; Research Center for Climate Change, Ministry of Water Resources, Nanjing, 210029, China; School of Hydrology and Water Resources, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China; School of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM), Johor Bahru, 81310, Malaysia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Sun J.,Wang X.,Yin Y.,等. Analysis of historical drought and flood characteristics of Hengshui during the period 1649–2018: a typical city in North China[J],2021,108(2).
APA	Sun J.,Wang X.,Yin Y.,&Shahid S..(2021).Analysis of historical drought and flood characteristics of Hengshui during the period 1649–2018: a typical city in North China.Natural Hazards,108(2).
MLA	Sun J.,et al."Analysis of historical drought and flood characteristics of Hengshui during the period 1649–2018: a typical city in North China".Natural Hazards 108.2(2021).