气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Assessing statistical hurricane risks: nonlinear regression and time-window analysis of North Atlantic annual accumulated cyclonic energy rank profile

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DOI	10.1007/s11069-021-04813-7
	Assessing statistical hurricane risks: nonlinear regression and time-window analysis of North Atlantic annual accumulated cyclonic energy rank profile
	Roca-Flores E.; Naumis G.G.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0921030X
起始页码	2455
结束页码	2465
卷号	108 期号:3
英文摘要	The ranking of events is a powerful tool to evaluate risks of catastrophic events. Here we analyze the rank-statistical profile of the North Atlantic annual accumulated cyclone energy index (ACE), which is an estimation of the cyclonic activity energy. After fitting several functions using nonlinear regression, we found that the ranking of accumulated cyclonic energy can be slightly best described by some functions rather than by the beta-like (Cocho) function. However, this last function has been widely used in dynamical systems as forcing and dissipation effects are provided by the distribution parameters. Therefore, the present work allows to statistically evaluate the risks associated with tropical hurricanes as well as the statistical combined effects of the forcing and dissipation due to the Coriolis force, moisture, sea surface temperature, sea level pressure, shear and upper troposphere convergence. The results suggest that dissipation and forcing dominate the variability of cyclonic activity and such forces are anticorrelated. As a conclusion, it is found that a period of abnormal high risk is occurring since 1995 in accordance with the hurricane thermal engine theory for a sea surface warming due to global warming. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V.
关键词	Accumulated cyclonic energy Beta-like Cocho distribution North Atlantic Ranking Time window Tropical cyclone
语种	英语
来源期刊	Natural Hazards
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/206524
作者单位	Instituto de Ciencias de la Atmósfera, UNAM, CDMX, 01000, Mexico; Departamento de Sistemas Complejos, Instituto de Física, Apdo, UNAM, 20-364, CDMX, 01000, Mexico
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Roca-Flores E.,Naumis G.G.. Assessing statistical hurricane risks: nonlinear regression and time-window analysis of North Atlantic annual accumulated cyclonic energy rank profile[J],2021,108(3).
APA	Roca-Flores E.,&Naumis G.G..(2021).Assessing statistical hurricane risks: nonlinear regression and time-window analysis of North Atlantic annual accumulated cyclonic energy rank profile.Natural Hazards,108(3).
MLA	Roca-Flores E.,et al."Assessing statistical hurricane risks: nonlinear regression and time-window analysis of North Atlantic annual accumulated cyclonic energy rank profile".Natural Hazards 108.3(2021).