气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): An improved rainfall-threshold approach for robust prediction and warning of flood and flash flood hazards

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DOI	10.1007/s11069-020-04405-x
	An improved rainfall-threshold approach for robust prediction and warning of flood and flash flood hazards
	Ramos Filho G.M.; Coelho V.H.R.; Freitas E.S.; Xuan Y.; Almeida C.N.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0921030X
起始页码	2409
结束页码	2429
卷号	105 期号:3
英文摘要	This paper presents an improved method of using threshold of peak rainfall intensity for robust flood/flash flood evaluation and warnings in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. The improvements involve the use of two tolerance levels and the delineating of an intermediate threshold by incorporating an exponential curve that relates rainfall intensity and Antecedent Precipitation Index (API). The application of the tolerance levels presents an average increase of 14% in the Probability of Detection (POD) of flood and flash flood occurrences above the upper threshold. Moreover, a considerable exclusion (63%) of non-occurrences of floods and flash floods in between the two thresholds significantly reduce the number of false alarms. The intermediate threshold using the exponential curves also exhibits improvements for almost all time steps of both hydrological hazards, with the best results found for floods correlating 8-h peak intensity and 8 days API, with POD and Positive Predictive Value (PPV) values equal to 81% and 82%, respectively. This study provides strong indications that the new proposed rainfall threshold-based approach can help reduce the uncertainties in predicting the occurrences of floods and flash floods. © 2020, The Author(s).
关键词	Antecedent precipitation index Flood hazards warning Intermediate rainfall intensity threshold Peak rainfall intensity Rainfall threshold method Tolerance limits
英文关键词	antecedent conditions; flash flood; flood control; flooding; hazard assessment; precipitation assessment; precipitation intensity; prediction; Brazil; Sao Paulo [Brazil]; Sao Paulo [Sao Paulo (STT)]
语种	英语
来源期刊	Natural Hazards
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/206521
作者单位	Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Federal University of Paraíba, João Pessoa, 58051-900, Brazil; Department of Geosciences, Federal University of Paraíba, João Pessoa, 58051-900, Brazil; College of Engineering, Swansea University Bay Campus, Swansea, SA1 8EN, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ramos Filho G.M.,Coelho V.H.R.,Freitas E.S.,et al. An improved rainfall-threshold approach for robust prediction and warning of flood and flash flood hazards[J],2021,105(3).
APA	Ramos Filho G.M.,Coelho V.H.R.,Freitas E.S.,Xuan Y.,&Almeida C.N..(2021).An improved rainfall-threshold approach for robust prediction and warning of flood and flash flood hazards.Natural Hazards,105(3).
MLA	Ramos Filho G.M.,et al."An improved rainfall-threshold approach for robust prediction and warning of flood and flash flood hazards".Natural Hazards 105.3(2021).