气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): A synoptic view of the natural time distribution and contemporary earthquake hazards in Sumatra, Indonesia

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s11069-021-04682-0
	A synoptic view of the natural time distribution and contemporary earthquake hazards in Sumatra, Indonesia
	Pasari S.; Simanjuntak A.V.H.; Mehta A.; Neha; Sharma Y.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0921030X
起始页码	309
结束页码	321
卷号	108 期号:1
英文摘要	Tectonic plate interactions in Sumatra have caused a range of devastating earthquake events. In this study, we develop an analytical framework, known as earthquake nowcasting (Rundle et al. in Earth and Space Science 3:480–486, 2016. 10.1002/2016EA000185), to assess the current dynamical state of earthquake hazards in Sumatra and adjacent islands from the empirical distribution of natural times, the cumulative counts of “small” events (say, M ≥ 4) between two successive “large” earthquakes (say, M ≥ 6.5). Based on 50 years of instrumental earthquake data, the best fit Weibull distribution assigns earthquake potential score between 29 and 96% to 19 large cities in the study region with the values (%) of Aceh (72), Bengkulu (34), Binjai (81), Jambi (35), Lahat (29), Lampung (45), Lhoksuemawe (54), Medan (75), Mentawai (76), Meulaboh (71), Nias (95), Palembang (80), Padang (74), Pekanbaru (39), Sabang (72), Siantar (82), Sibolga (92), Sinabang (96), and Tanjung Balai (55). These areal-source based nowcast scores, analogous to the tectonic stress buildup since the last major event, essentially provides a unique characterization of the current level of seismic progression of a city through its repetitive cycle of regional earthquakes. Inclusion of dependent events with aftershocks being more common and the concept of natural times are some of the distinctive advantages of the proposed method. The resulting natural time statistics and consequent earthquake potential scores will facilitate seismic risk estimation, multistate decision-making, and community awareness, leading to an efficient seismic risk reduction strategy in the densely populated study region. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V.
关键词	Earthquake nowcasting Probability models Seismic hazard Sumatra
语种	英语
来源期刊	Natural Hazards
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/206486
作者单位	Birla Institute of Technology and Science Pilani, Pilani Campus, Jhunjhunu, Rajasthan 333031, India; Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG), Banda Aceh City, Aceh 23111, Indonesia; Department of Civil Engineering, Institute of Infrastructure Technology and Management, Ahmedabad, Gujarat 380026, India
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Pasari S.,Simanjuntak A.V.H.,Mehta A.,et al. A synoptic view of the natural time distribution and contemporary earthquake hazards in Sumatra, Indonesia[J],2021,108(1).
APA	Pasari S.,Simanjuntak A.V.H.,Mehta A.,Neha,&Sharma Y..(2021).A synoptic view of the natural time distribution and contemporary earthquake hazards in Sumatra, Indonesia.Natural Hazards,108(1).
MLA	Pasari S.,et al."A synoptic view of the natural time distribution and contemporary earthquake hazards in Sumatra, Indonesia".Natural Hazards 108.1(2021).