气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Temperature trend analysis and extreme high temperature prediction based on weighted Markov Model in Lanzhou

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DOI	10.1007/s11069-021-04711-y
	Temperature trend analysis and extreme high temperature prediction based on weighted Markov Model in Lanzhou
	Pang Z.; Wang Z.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0921030X
起始页码	891
结束页码	906
卷号	108 期号:1
英文摘要	In this study, temporal trend analysis was conducted on the annual and quarterly meteorological variables of Lanzhou from 1951 to 2016, and a weighted Markov model for extremely high temperature prediction was constructed. Several non-parametric methods were used to analyse the trend of meteorological variables. Considering that sequence autocorrelation may affect the accuracy of the trend test, we performed an autocorrelation test and carried out trend analysis for sequences with autocorrelation after removing correlation. The results show that the maximum temperature, minimum temperature and average temperature in Lanzhou all have a significant upward trend and show different performances in each season. In detail, the trend of maximum temperature in the summer is not significant, while the upward trend of minimum temperature in the winter is the most significant, which leads to more and more “warm winter” phenomenon. Finally, we construct a weighted Markov prediction model for extremely high temperature and obtain the conclusion that the prediction results by the model are consistent with the actual situation. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V.
关键词	Mann–Kendall test Meteorological variables Trend analysis Weighted Markov model
语种	英语
来源期刊	Natural Hazards
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/206481
作者单位	School of Statistics, Lanzhou University of Finance and Economics, Lanzhou, Gansu, China; School of Mathematics and Statistics, Qinghai Normal University, Xining, Qinghai, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Pang Z.,Wang Z.. Temperature trend analysis and extreme high temperature prediction based on weighted Markov Model in Lanzhou[J],2021,108(1).
APA	Pang Z.,&Wang Z..(2021).Temperature trend analysis and extreme high temperature prediction based on weighted Markov Model in Lanzhou.Natural Hazards,108(1).
MLA	Pang Z.,et al."Temperature trend analysis and extreme high temperature prediction based on weighted Markov Model in Lanzhou".Natural Hazards 108.1(2021).