气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Seasonal meteorological drought projections over Iran using the NMME data

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DOI	10.1007/s11069-021-04721-w
	Seasonal meteorological drought projections over Iran using the NMME data
	Moradian S.; Yazdandoost F.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0921030X
起始页码	1089
结束页码	1107
卷号	108 期号:1
英文摘要	Accurate and well-planned forecasts provide critical information for preparedness and mitigation strategies as well as the sustainable practice of water resources conservation. In this paper, an experimental seasonal drought forecasting system has been developed based on meteorological hindcasts, generated by the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) models. The proposed toolbox comprises (1) NMME data as well as observations, (2) post-processing methods, namely GrandNMME and bias correction methods to statistically post-process precipitation predictions, (3) evaluation metrics of a multi-criteria decision-making method (namely the Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS)) to choose the best post-processed improved data, and (4) the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) calculator as the central engine, where distribution maps of seasonal drought forecasts are generated. The toolbox has been utilized for the case of Iran. The country is located in semiarid and arid regions of the world, facing considerable water crisis including droughts. Results indicated that the proposed NMME-based drought forecasting toolbox has a significant skill in forecasting droughts over the study area and provides critical information for early warnings, medium-term response planning and taking preventive measures. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V.
关键词	Iran NMME predictions Seasonal drought forecasting SPI
语种	英语
来源期刊	Natural Hazards
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/206440
作者单位	Department of Civil Engineering, K. N. Toosi University of Technology, Number 1346, Mirdamad Intersection, Valiasr Avenue, Tehran, 19697, Iran
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Moradian S.,Yazdandoost F.. Seasonal meteorological drought projections over Iran using the NMME data[J],2021,108(1).
APA	Moradian S.,&Yazdandoost F..(2021).Seasonal meteorological drought projections over Iran using the NMME data.Natural Hazards,108(1).
MLA	Moradian S.,et al."Seasonal meteorological drought projections over Iran using the NMME data".Natural Hazards 108.1(2021).