气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Determination of possible responses of Radon-222, magnetic effects, and total electron content to earthquakes on the North Anatolian Fault Zone, Turkiye: an ARIMA and Monte Carlo Simulation

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DOI	10.1007/s11069-021-04785-8
	Determination of possible responses of Radon-222, magnetic effects, and total electron content to earthquakes on the North Anatolian Fault Zone, Turkiye: an ARIMA and Monte Carlo Simulation
	Mohammed D.H.K.; Külahcı F.; Muhammed A.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0921030X
起始页码	2493
结束页码	2512
卷号	108 期号:3
英文摘要	Around the world, earthquake forecasting studies have become very important nowadays due to the increase in number of fatal earthquakes annually. This paper proposes to achieve a possible relationship between soil radon gas concentration and atmospheric total electron content (TEC) during earthquakes taking into account magnetic effects on the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) in Turkiye. The ARIMA and Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) are employed for determining radon gas concentrations by taking into account magnetic effects as an innovative approach. In the study area, relatively small and medium-scale earthquakes have taken place during the observation period. As a result of the investigations, the relationships between each of the parameters and earthquakes are determined; hence, a good relationship is obtained between Rn gas anomaly and micro-seismic activity. In the ionosphere, geomagnetic activity has a primary impact and long duration on TEC distribution, but due to micro-seismic events it has rather small influence. The proposed ARIMA and MCS simulations to detect changes in soil Rn gas concentrations have significant results for detecting micro-seismic activity anomalies. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V.
关键词	ARIMA Earthquake Forecasting Model Monte Carlo simulation Prediction Radon gas Total electron content
语种	英语
来源期刊	Natural Hazards
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/206436
作者单位	Science Faculty, Physics Department, Nuclear Physics Division, Fırat University, Elazig, TR-23100, Turkey
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Mohammed D.H.K.,Külahcı F.,Muhammed A.. Determination of possible responses of Radon-222, magnetic effects, and total electron content to earthquakes on the North Anatolian Fault Zone, Turkiye: an ARIMA and Monte Carlo Simulation[J],2021,108(3).
APA	Mohammed D.H.K.,Külahcı F.,&Muhammed A..(2021).Determination of possible responses of Radon-222, magnetic effects, and total electron content to earthquakes on the North Anatolian Fault Zone, Turkiye: an ARIMA and Monte Carlo Simulation.Natural Hazards,108(3).
MLA	Mohammed D.H.K.,et al."Determination of possible responses of Radon-222, magnetic effects, and total electron content to earthquakes on the North Anatolian Fault Zone, Turkiye: an ARIMA and Monte Carlo Simulation".Natural Hazards 108.3(2021).