气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Increased motor vehicle crashes following the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake, Japan: an interrupted time series analysis of property damage crashes

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DOI	10.1007/s11069-021-04760-3
	Increased motor vehicle crashes following the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake, Japan: an interrupted time series analysis of property damage crashes
	Maruyama T.; Taguchi K.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0921030X
起始页码	1877
结束页码	1899
卷号	108 期号:2
英文摘要	Driving after natural disasters entails a substantial amount of stress; therefore, the number of motor vehicle crashes may increase. However, few studies have examined this issue. This study investigated motor vehicle crashes after the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake in Japan. Monthly data about crashes resulting in property damage from 49 municipalities in Kumamoto from 2015 to 2018 were used. An interrupted time series analysis using Poisson or negative binomial regression models was conducted for 49 municipalities; the models were estimated for four classified areas to obtain the robust results. We found that property damage crashes increased significantly in the heavily affected area (Relative Risk (RR) = 1.48, 95% Confidence interval (CI): 1.29, 1.71) and the affected area (RR = 1.25, 95% CI: 1.15, 1.36) after the earthquake. A mountainous area showed a reduction in property damage crashes despite its heavy damage (RR = 0.74, 95% CI: 0.67, 0.82), which can be attributed to the closure of its main gate routes. The unaffected area showed no difference before and after the earthquake. Geographical presentation of the result demonstrates a clear positive association of earthquake damage and increased crashes. The findings of this study highlight the importance of motor-vehicle-crash alerts after an earthquake. © 2021, The Author(s).
关键词	Earthquake disaster Motor vehicle crashes resulting in property damage Negative binomial regression model Poisson regression model Time series count data model
语种	英语
来源期刊	Natural Hazards
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/206416
作者单位	Center for Water Resource, Marine Environment, and Disaster Management, Kumamoto University, 2-39-1 Kurokami, Kumamoto, 860-8555, Japan; Department of Civil Engineering, Kumamoto University, Kumamoto, Japan
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Maruyama T.,Taguchi K.. Increased motor vehicle crashes following the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake, Japan: an interrupted time series analysis of property damage crashes[J],2021,108(2).
APA	Maruyama T.,&Taguchi K..(2021).Increased motor vehicle crashes following the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake, Japan: an interrupted time series analysis of property damage crashes.Natural Hazards,108(2).
MLA	Maruyama T.,et al."Increased motor vehicle crashes following the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake, Japan: an interrupted time series analysis of property damage crashes".Natural Hazards 108.2(2021).