气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Identifying rainfall threshold of flash flood using entropy decision approach and hydrological model method

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DOI	10.1007/s11069-021-04739-0
	Identifying rainfall threshold of flash flood using entropy decision approach and hydrological model method
	Lin K.; Zhou J.; Liang R.; Hu X.; Lan T.; Liu M.; Gao X.; Yan D.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0921030X
起始页码	1427
结束页码	1448
卷号	108 期号:2
英文摘要	Flash flood disaster, with strong suddenness and tremendous destructiveness, is one of the most severe natural disasters in China that seriously threaten the lives and property safety of people and social development. Owing to the complex terrain and limited rainfall and runoff monitoring gauges, it is arduous to effectively prevent and control flash flood disasters in small-sized and medium-sized hilly watersheds. Identifying rainfall threshold, critical discharge and warning periods for flash flood, is critical in disaster prevention in such regions. This study adopted two approaches, the entropy-based decision approach and the hydrological model approach in calculating rainfall thresholds under different antecedent moisture condition (AMC). In particular, the entropy-based decision approach was improved, by using the Frank copula to calculate the multivariate joint distribution of the cumulative rainfall and the corresponding peak discharge. These two approaches were validated in a typical basin, located in the Pearl River Delta in South China that is characterized by frequently heavy rainfall and floods in the monsoon. Results showed that both approaches have the ability to quantify rainfall thresholds. Relatively, the Bayesian method exhibited higher rainfall thresholds, comparing to the other methods. In particular, for AMC I, the utility-entropy risk function method (with λ = 1) exhibited the best-applied practicable forecast lead time of 2.0 h; as for AMC II, the two methods showed the same forecast lead time of 1.5 h, and for AMC III, the hydrological model-based approach showed an optimal forecast lead time of 6.0 h. Meanwhile, the entropy-based approach exhibited the same performance as hydrological modeling approaches, indicating that this method is practicable in flood forecasting. The results would be helpful for floods prevention and mitigation in such small-sized and medium-sized hilly watersheds. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V.
关键词	Entropy-based decision Flash flood disaster Hydrological model Rainfall threshold
语种	英语
来源期刊	Natural Hazards
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/206367
作者单位	Center of Water Resources and Environment, School of Civil Engineering, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, China; Guangdong Key Laboratory of Oceanic Civil Engineering, Guangzhou, China; Guangdong Engineering Technology Research Center of Water Security Regulation and Control for Southern China, Guangzhou, China; Guangdong Research Institute of Water Resources and HydroPower, Guangzhou, China; Pearl River Hydraulic Research Institute, Guangzhou, China; Department of Water Resources, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower17 Research, Beijing, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Lin K.,Zhou J.,Liang R.,et al. Identifying rainfall threshold of flash flood using entropy decision approach and hydrological model method[J],2021,108(2).
APA	Lin K..,Zhou J..,Liang R..,Hu X..,Lan T..,...&Yan D..(2021).Identifying rainfall threshold of flash flood using entropy decision approach and hydrological model method.Natural Hazards,108(2).
MLA	Lin K.,et al."Identifying rainfall threshold of flash flood using entropy decision approach and hydrological model method".Natural Hazards 108.2(2021).