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DOI	10.1007/s11069-021-04853-z
	An integrated framework of coastal flood modelling under the failures of sea dikes: a case study in Shanghai
	Ke Q.; Yin J.; Bricker J.D.; Savage N.; Buonomo E.; Ye Q.; Visser P.; Dong G.; Wang S.; Tian Z.; Sun L.; Toumi R.; Jonkman S.N.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0921030X
英文摘要	Climate change leads to sea level rise worldwide, as well as increases in the intensity and frequency of tropical cyclones (TCs). Storm surge induced by TC’s, together with spring tides, threatens to cause failure of flood defenses, resulting in massive flooding in low-lying coastal areas. However, limited research has been done on the combined effects of the increasing intensity of TCs and sea level rise on the characteristics of coastal flooding due to the failure of sea dikes. This paper investigates the spatial variation of coastal flooding due to the failure of sea dikes subject to past and future TC climatology and sea level rise, via a case study of a low-lying deltaic city- Shanghai, China. Using a hydrodynamic model and a spectral wave model, storm tide and wave parameters were calculated as input for an empirical model of overtopping discharge rate. The results show that the change of storm climatology together with relative sea level rise (RSLR) largely exacerbates the coastal hazard for Shanghai in the future, in which RSLR is likely to have a larger effect than the TC climatology change on future coastal flooding in Shanghai. In addition, the coastal flood hazard will increase to a large extent in terms of the flood water volume for each corresponding given return period. The approach developed in this paper can also be utilized to investigate future flood risk for other low-lying coastal regions. © 2021, The Author(s).
关键词	Climate change Coastal flooding Dike failure Sea level rise Tropical cyclone
语种	英语
来源期刊	Natural Hazards
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/206324
作者单位	Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Delft University of Technology, Delft, Netherlands; Dam Safety Management Centre of Ministry of Water Resources, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing, China; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, United States; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; Deltares, Delft, Netherlands; Shanghai Climate Centre, Shanghai Meteorological Service, Shanghai, China; Department of Physics, Imperial College London, London, SW7 2BU, United Kingdom; Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen, China; Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, United States; School of Finance and Management, SOAS University of London, London, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ke Q.,Yin J.,Bricker J.D.,et al. An integrated framework of coastal flood modelling under the failures of sea dikes: a case study in Shanghai[J],2021.
APA	Ke Q..,Yin J..,Bricker J.D..,Savage N..,Buonomo E..,...&Jonkman S.N..(2021).An integrated framework of coastal flood modelling under the failures of sea dikes: a case study in Shanghai.Natural Hazards.
MLA	Ke Q.,et al."An integrated framework of coastal flood modelling under the failures of sea dikes: a case study in Shanghai".Natural Hazards (2021).