气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Impact analysis of highways in China under future extreme precipitation

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s11069-021-04981-6
	Impact analysis of highways in China under future extreme precipitation
	Jia L.; Yang S.; Wang W.; Zhang X.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0921030X
英文摘要	With worsening global climate change, we still do not fully understand how to cope with possible extreme precipitation events or secondary disasters on highway networks. Correctly estimating the impact on the highway network from extreme precipitation plays a vital role in decision making regarding future highway investment. This study uses datasets from 21 NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) under the RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. We use the percentile method to select the extreme precipitation threshold. A set of system performance measures for an impact analysis of Chinese highways under different scenarios is developed from the perspectives of physical exposure, network function and sensitivity analyses for high-impact areas in China. The results show that the intensity of extreme precipitation will increase in the future. More than 10,000 km and at least 4,000 intersections will be affected by extreme precipitation in 2030 and 2050. Based on a functional analysis of the highway network in Guangdong and Guangxi, more than 80% of the mileage of highways in Guangdong and Guangxi will be exposed to extreme precipitation. The network function of Chinese highways will dramatically decrease when precipitation reaches a critical value, which will shed light on highway fortification standards and planning. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V.
关键词	Extreme precipitation Highways Impact analysis Sensitivity analysis
语种	英语
来源期刊	Natural Hazards
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/206304
作者单位	State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resources Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China; Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Emergency Management and Ministry of Education, Beijing, 100875, China; Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China; Institute of Transportation System Science and Engineering, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing, 100044, China; Key Laboratory of Transport Industry of Big Data Application Technologies for Comprehensive Transport, Ministry of Transport, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing, 100044, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Jia L.,Yang S.,Wang W.,et al. Impact analysis of highways in China under future extreme precipitation[J],2021.
APA	Jia L.,Yang S.,Wang W.,&Zhang X..(2021).Impact analysis of highways in China under future extreme precipitation.Natural Hazards.
MLA	Jia L.,et al."Impact analysis of highways in China under future extreme precipitation".Natural Hazards (2021).