气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Probabilistic landslide risk assessment in water supply basins: La Liboriana River Basin (Salgar-Colombia)

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s11069-021-04836-0
	Probabilistic landslide risk assessment in water supply basins: La Liboriana River Basin (Salgar-Colombia)
	Hidalgo C.A.; Vega J.A.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0921030X
英文摘要	Landslides are natural hazards that represent a huge economic burden and cause the loss of human life around the world. In countries such as Colombia, the mass movement events that cause the highest number of deaths and economic losses are often related to river or stream flooding caused by landslides in basins. Therefore, it is necessary to develop tools that estimate and assess landslide risk in such areas. This study presents a methodology to assess the risk associated with landslides in streams or river basins. The hazard posed by landslides is evaluated considering probabilistic methods that include the effects of rainfall and earthquakes. In addition, this study assesses the probability of a sliding mass reaching riverbeds and the probability of riverbed obstruction. Vulnerability is then estimated using impact curves based on the obstruction height. Finally, risk is estimated as the probability that economic losses occur along the riverbed. This methodology is based on probability methods, such as the first-order second-moment (FOSM) method, and the punctual estimates method (PEM). The methodology was applied in the La Liboriana River basin, in the municipality of Salgar in the northwestern Colombian Andes. On May 18, 2015, this mountainous and tropical area suffered a flash flood caused by landslides in the basin, which killed more than 100 inhabitants and caused infrastructure damage and significant economic losses. The results suggest that the proposed method coherently assesses the hazard posed by landslides and that the expected losses are comparable with the records from previous events. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V.
关键词	Landslide Probabilistic assessment Risk River basins Vulnerability riverbeds
语种	英语
来源期刊	Natural Hazards
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/206275
作者单位	Program of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, University of Medellín, Carrera 87 N° 30 – 65 (Bloque 4), Medellín, Colombia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Hidalgo C.A.,Vega J.A.. Probabilistic landslide risk assessment in water supply basins: La Liboriana River Basin (Salgar-Colombia)[J],2021.
APA	Hidalgo C.A.,&Vega J.A..(2021).Probabilistic landslide risk assessment in water supply basins: La Liboriana River Basin (Salgar-Colombia).Natural Hazards.
MLA	Hidalgo C.A.,et al."Probabilistic landslide risk assessment in water supply basins: La Liboriana River Basin (Salgar-Colombia)".Natural Hazards (2021).