气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Seismic risk management through insurance and its sensitivity to uncertainty in the hazard model

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s11069-021-04748-z
	Seismic risk management through insurance and its sensitivity to uncertainty in the hazard model
	Gkimprixis A.; Douglas J.; Tubaldi E.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0921030X
起始页码	1629
结束页码	1657
卷号	108 期号:2
英文摘要	Acknowledging the devastating consequences of past earthquakes, current research efforts focus on the development of tools for assessing and controlling the risk and losses associated with future earthquakes, in addition to trying to minimize construction costs. Apart from providing a control of these levels, earthquake engineering can also provide solutions to manage the financial implications of the expected hazardous events. The first part of this article focuses on the management of the expected losses through the mechanism of transfer of the financial risk via earthquake insurance. Various insurance models are explained and applied in different case studies, and numerous analyses are performed across Europe, for a benchmark four-storey reinforced-concrete frame building. The results highlight significant variation in the premiums with seismicity, design practices and properties of the insurance model. It is crucial that any mitigation or transfer framework should use probabilistic methods to consider the uncertainties inherent in the hazard and structural response estimates. For example, different studies for the same region often indicate considerable differences in seismic hazard estimates. The uncertainty inherent in the hazard input model is transferred to and affects the results of the structural design and the performance assessment. Thus, the second part of the article investigates the impact of the epistemic uncertainty in the hazard model on the structural design and consequently the estimated future losses and risk levels, again for the benchmark building. First, a comparison is performed between the hazard data from two studies for different locations in Italy, in order to assess the possible range of variation in estimated hazard levels amongst different studies. The effects of these hazard variations on the seismic design and risk and loss metrics for the benchmark building are also investigated for these locations. Finally, a simplified approach for modelling hazard uncertainty is introduced and various sensitivity analyses are performed to investigate the effects of the hazard uncertainty across Europe. It is shown that hazard uncertainty can be of differing importance for the various involved stakeholders. © 2021, The Author(s).
关键词	Earthquake insurance premium Financial loss Hazard uncertainty Reinforced concrete buildings Seismic risk management Uniform hazard
英文关键词	building; concrete structure; earthquake; finance; hazard assessment; insurance system; reinforced concrete; risk assessment; seismicity; uncertainty analysis; Europe
语种	英语
来源期刊	Natural Hazards
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/206239
作者单位	Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Gkimprixis A.,Douglas J.,Tubaldi E.. Seismic risk management through insurance and its sensitivity to uncertainty in the hazard model[J],2021,108(2).
APA	Gkimprixis A.,Douglas J.,&Tubaldi E..(2021).Seismic risk management through insurance and its sensitivity to uncertainty in the hazard model.Natural Hazards,108(2).
MLA	Gkimprixis A.,et al."Seismic risk management through insurance and its sensitivity to uncertainty in the hazard model".Natural Hazards 108.2(2021).