气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Assessing the impact of geo-targeted warning messages on residents’ evacuation decisions before a hurricane using agent-based modeling

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s11069-021-04576-1
	Assessing the impact of geo-targeted warning messages on residents’ evacuation decisions before a hurricane using agent-based modeling
	Gao S.; Wang Y.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0921030X
起始页码	123
结束页码	146
卷号	107 期号:1
英文摘要	The increasing frequency and intensity of hurricane hazards have raised the urgency of improving hurricane warning effectiveness, especially in terms of motivating the evacuation of people living in high-risk areas. Traditional warnings for hurricanes have limitations of sending a general message for coarse spatial scales (e.g., county level) and do not include specific risks and orders for residents in distinct areas of finer scales. To overcome these limitations, geo-targeted hurricane warning systems have been proposed, but in practice, the existing systems have low accuracy because they neglect environmental factors when defining warning zones. Extant literature has focused on optimizing the geo-delivering process of warnings with limited efforts on geo-defining warning zones. It is still unclear to what extent the geo-targeted warnings motivate residents to evacuate from high-risk areas before a hurricane. Therefore, we developed an agent-based model (ABM) to simulate residents’ evacuation decision-making under geo-targeted warnings, which were generated based on characteristics of both hurricane hazards and the built environment. We used forecasted information of Hurricane Dorian as a case study; then conducted the ABMs under geo-targeted warnings, a general warning, and warnings based on storm surge planning zones; then we compared the three outcomes. The research finds an effective way to geo-define warning zones using the built environment data. The result suggests that geo-targeted warnings can motivate more residents in high-risk areas to evacuate. These findings contribute to the understanding of the effect of geo-targeted warning on evacuation and suggest the importance of warnings with more specific contents for finer spatial scales. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V. part of Springer Nature.
关键词	Agent-based modeling Decision-making Evacuation Geo-targeted warning Hurricane
英文关键词	assessment method; decision making; environmental factor; hazard assessment; hurricane event; natural hazard; warning system
语种	英语
来源期刊	Natural Hazards
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/206228
作者单位	Department of Urban and Regional Planning, College of Design, Construction and Planning, Florida Institute for Built Environment Resilience, University of Florida, 1480 Inner Road, Gainesville, FL 32601, United States; Department of Urban and Regional Planning and Florida Institute for Built Environment Resilience, University of Florida, 115706, Gainesville, FL 32611, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Gao S.,Wang Y.. Assessing the impact of geo-targeted warning messages on residents’ evacuation decisions before a hurricane using agent-based modeling[J],2021,107(1).
APA	Gao S.,&Wang Y..(2021).Assessing the impact of geo-targeted warning messages on residents’ evacuation decisions before a hurricane using agent-based modeling.Natural Hazards,107(1).
MLA	Gao S.,et al."Assessing the impact of geo-targeted warning messages on residents’ evacuation decisions before a hurricane using agent-based modeling".Natural Hazards 107.1(2021).