气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Spatial and temporal variation of rainfall extremes for the North Anhui Province Plain of China over 1976

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DOI	10.1007/s11069-020-04423-9
	Spatial and temporal variation of rainfall extremes for the North Anhui Province Plain of China over 1976–2018
	Du M.; Zhang J.; Yang Q.; Wang Z.; Bao Z.; Liu Y.; Jin J.; Liu C.; Wang G.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0921030X
起始页码	2777
结束页码	2797
卷号	105 期号:3
英文摘要	The North Anhui Province Plain (NAHPP), an important food production plain in China, is prone to frequent droughts and floods. To better understand the extreme events and mitigate their effects, this paper explores the spatiotemporal variation of precipitation extremes in the NAHPP during 1976 and 2018. Variation trends and spatial distributions of the annual maximum 1-day, 3-day, 7-day, and 15-day-rainfall were analyzed, and the probability distribution of rainfall extremes in the NAHPP was calculated by three distribution functions (Gumbel, P-III, and generalized extreme value). The optimal fitting function was selected based on the Kolmogorov–Smirnov test, and the rainfall in different return periods was calculated according to the optimal fitting function. The results indicate that rainfall extreme showed a 2- to 3-year periodicity on the interannual scale and 21-year periodicity on the chronological scale in the NAHPP. The rainfall extremes showed nonsignificant increase trend over the NAHPP, and some stations showed no significant decrease trend. The P-III distribution function best fit to the rainfall extremes (the maximum 1-day rainfall: 59%). The spatial distributions of rainfall extremes were similar in different return periods. As the return period increased, the estimated rainfall by the three distribution functions were slightly larger than that in the empirical return period. The findings will benefit regional water resources management and water-related risk control. © 2020, Springer Nature B.V.
关键词	China Probability distribution Rainfall extremes Return period The North Anhui Province Plain
英文关键词	climate effect; extreme event; periodicity; precipitation intensity; probability; rainfall; regional climate; spatial distribution; temporal variation; Anhui; China
语种	英语
来源期刊	Natural Hazards
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/206196
作者单位	School of Civil Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin, 300350, China; State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing, 210029, China; Yangtze Institute for Conservation and Development, Nanjing, 210098, China; Research Center for Climate Change, Nanjing, 210029, China; University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu, 611731, China; Wudaogou Experimental Station for Hydrology and Water Resources, Bengbu, 233704, China; Huai River Commission, Anhui Hydraulic Research Institute, Bengbu, 233000, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Du M.,Zhang J.,Yang Q.,等. Spatial and temporal variation of rainfall extremes for the North Anhui Province Plain of China over 1976–2018[J],2021,105(3).
APA	Du M..,Zhang J..,Yang Q..,Wang Z..,Bao Z..,...&Wang G..(2021).Spatial and temporal variation of rainfall extremes for the North Anhui Province Plain of China over 1976–2018.Natural Hazards,105(3).
MLA	Du M.,et al."Spatial and temporal variation of rainfall extremes for the North Anhui Province Plain of China over 1976–2018".Natural Hazards 105.3(2021).