气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): A regional Natech risk assessment based on a Natech-prone facility network for dependent events

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s11069-021-04612-0
	A regional Natech risk assessment based on a Natech-prone facility network for dependent events
	Cai M.; Marson S.M.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0921030X
起始页码	2155
结束页码	2174
卷号	107 期号:3
英文摘要	Because of the recent frequency of climatic hazards and extreme weather events, disasters caused by natural hazards are attracting increased attention from the governments, communities, and the public. Synergistic effects between natural and technological hazards have a significant role in risk assessment. To address these effects, a Natech risk assessment model based on a natural-technological-prone (Natech-prone) facility network is developed to clarify specific scenarios and assess Natech risk. A weighted and directed graph is employed to map out the industrial facilities and other necessary information emerging from the display. It is assumed that the final risk triggered by a natural event is the result of disasters caused by Natech-prone facilities. The decision weights of Natech-prone facilities are heavily dependent on the recognition of the interacting components. A subjective probability is applied to the expected risk utility function to overcome the disadvantage of objective probability, which fails to address the uncertainty found in irrational human factors. Fuzzy measures are used to describe the positive and negative synergistic effects caused by the interaction between Natech-prone facilities. In addition, a Choquet integral is incorporated into the method to deduce the positive and negative synergistic effects in risk assessment. A numerical example is given to illustrate the model, and comparisons and analyses are provided. This paper conceptualizes a specific scenario of a Natech accident. The use of an expected risk utility function for dependent disaster events is a new idea in the field of Natech risk assessment. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V. part of Springer Nature.
关键词	Expected risk utility Fuzzy measure Interaction Natural-technological (Natech) accident Risk assessment Synergistic effects
英文关键词	accident; fuzzy mathematics; natural disaster; risk assessment; technology
语种	英语
来源期刊	Natural Hazards
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/206133
作者单位	School of Management Science and Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China; Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster (KLME), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Ministry of Education and Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD), Nanjing, China; The University of North Carolina at Pembroke, Pembroke, NC 28372, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Cai M.,Marson S.M.. A regional Natech risk assessment based on a Natech-prone facility network for dependent events[J],2021,107(3).
APA	Cai M.,&Marson S.M..(2021).A regional Natech risk assessment based on a Natech-prone facility network for dependent events.Natural Hazards,107(3).
MLA	Cai M.,et al."A regional Natech risk assessment based on a Natech-prone facility network for dependent events".Natural Hazards 107.3(2021).