气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Risk analysis of tripping accidents of power grid caused by typical natural hazards based on FTA-BN model

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DOI	10.1007/s11069-021-04510-5
	Risk analysis of tripping accidents of power grid caused by typical natural hazards based on FTA-BN model
	Bian H.; Zhang J.; Li R.; Zhao H.; Wang X.; Bai Y.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0921030X
起始页码	1771
结束页码	1795
卷号	106 期号:3
英文摘要	As the scale of the power grid becomes larger, the requirements for transmission reliability are getting higher. Due to the large geographical span and the harsh environment of the power transmission line, it has become the most severely affected equipment of the power grid by natural factors. However, the quantitative assessment of transmission line tripping accidents caused by multiple natural hazards has rarely been investigated. In this study, a risk analysis method to probabilistically analyze the tripping accidents of power transmission lines caused by wildfire, lightning, strong wind and ice storm was proposed. The analysis process consists of comprehensively identifying the risk of tripping accidents based on fault tree analysis and dynamically performing the predictive analysis of tripping accident evolution process in transmission line from causes to consequences based on Bayesian network. Critical risk evolution paths corresponding to four natural hazards are determined through a 72-node BN. The source risks of the four critical risk evolution paths are artificial ignition source from the wildfire path, aging from the lightning path, thoughtless of surrounding environment from the strong wind path and wind effect from the ice storm path. The countermeasures of tripping accidents are derived through the source risks and synergy between risks in three scenario analysis. This study is expected to examine the key challenges of risk management in power grid tripping accidents, which provides technical supports for accident preventing, handling and recovering of tripping accidents of the power transmission line according to “scenario–response”-based hazard response strategy. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V. part of Springer Nature.
关键词	Bayesian network Fault tree analysis Natural hazards Power grid Risk analysis Tripping accident
英文关键词	accident; Bayesian analysis; natural hazard; numerical model; power generation; power line; risk assessment
语种	英语
来源期刊	Natural Hazards
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/206122
作者单位	State Grid Energy Research Institute Co., Ltd., Beijing, 102209, China; School of Emergency Management and Safety Engineering, China University of Mining and Technology, Beijing, 100083, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Bian H.,Zhang J.,Li R.,et al. Risk analysis of tripping accidents of power grid caused by typical natural hazards based on FTA-BN model[J],2021,106(3).
APA	Bian H.,Zhang J.,Li R.,Zhao H.,Wang X.,&Bai Y..(2021).Risk analysis of tripping accidents of power grid caused by typical natural hazards based on FTA-BN model.Natural Hazards,106(3).
MLA	Bian H.,et al."Risk analysis of tripping accidents of power grid caused by typical natural hazards based on FTA-BN model".Natural Hazards 106.3(2021).