气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Building capacity for a user-centred Integrated Early Warning System (I-EWS) for drought in the Northern Murray-Darling Basin

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s11069-021-04575-2
	Building capacity for a user-centred Integrated Early Warning System (I-EWS) for drought in the Northern Murray-Darling Basin
	Bhardwaj J.; Kuleshov Y.; Watkins A.B.; Aitkenhead I.; Asghari A.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0921030X
起始页码	97
结束页码	122
卷号	107 期号:1
英文摘要	Drought frequently impacts both the agricultural productivity and the well-being of farming communities in drought-prone areas of Australia, including the largest agricultural region in the country—the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB). Improving drought preparedness of farming communities in the MDB could be achieved by building capacity for a user-centred Integrated Early Warning System (I-EWS) for drought. In this study, a prospective I-EWS was investigated. Farming individuals were interviewed to inductively guide the selection of drought-related indices most appropriate for the study area. Based on interview results and desktop research, five drought-related indices directly relevant to the MDB were selected as inputs to the trigger levels for an I-EWS: the Standardised Precipitation Index, the Vegetation Health Index, Soil Moisture (percent of normal), the likelihood of exceeding median rainfall in a coming month, and the chance of El Niño. Based on these inputs, decision rules were formulated for a staged “WATCH,” “ALERT” and “DECLARATION” drought early warnings. These decision rules were tested for the intense dry period from 2017 to 2019 for five key agricultural Local Government Areas in the Northern MDB. It was found that all three stages of the drought I-EWS were adequately triggered, indicating that a warning lead time of 3–8 months could have been possible in the dry period. Data for the selected inputs are readily obtained from space-based products as well as national meteorological services and would be applicable to regions with limited observing networks or forecast capability. Thus, while the methodologies developed in this study and the resultant outcomes are tailored to the Northern MDB, this research ultimately serves as both a successful proof of concept for the drought EWS as well as a foundational base for the design of an operational user-centred I-EWS in susceptible to drought regions of Australia and other countries. © 2021, Crown.
关键词	Australia Climate risk Drought Drought preparedness Early Warning System Proactive decision making The Northern Murray-Darling Basin
英文关键词	decision making; drought; early warning system; El Nino; hazard management; local government; precipitation assessment; risk assessment; Australia; Murray-Darling Basin
语种	英语
来源期刊	Natural Hazards
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/206119
作者单位	Monash University, Clayton, VIC, Australia; Bureau of Meteorology, Docklands, VIC, Australia; Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology (RMIT) University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; The University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Bhardwaj J.,Kuleshov Y.,Watkins A.B.,et al. Building capacity for a user-centred Integrated Early Warning System (I-EWS) for drought in the Northern Murray-Darling Basin[J],2021,107(1).
APA	Bhardwaj J.,Kuleshov Y.,Watkins A.B.,Aitkenhead I.,&Asghari A..(2021).Building capacity for a user-centred Integrated Early Warning System (I-EWS) for drought in the Northern Murray-Darling Basin.Natural Hazards,107(1).
MLA	Bhardwaj J.,et al."Building capacity for a user-centred Integrated Early Warning System (I-EWS) for drought in the Northern Murray-Darling Basin".Natural Hazards 107.1(2021).