气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Quantifying climate-induced drought risk to livelihood and mitigation actions in Balochistan

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s11069-021-04913-4
	Quantifying climate-induced drought risk to livelihood and mitigation actions in Balochistan
	Ashraf M.; Arshad A.; Patel P.M.; Khan A.; Qamar H.; Siti-Sundari R.; Ghani M.U.; Amin A.; Babar J.R.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0921030X
英文摘要	Climate change-induced disasters show the highest risk for agriculture and livelihoods in rural areas of developing countries. Due to changing rainfall pattern, the arid and semiarid region of Pakistan faces frequent droughts. Farming communities affected by drought disasters are causing serious threats to livelihood, global food crises, environmental migration, and sustainable development. The existing study was designed to quantify two key components through (1) analysis of agrometeorological data (1981–2017) with exploratory data analysis and Mann–Kendall trend analysis; (2) extensive field survey (200 households). The multivariate probit model has been run to detect determinants of coping and adaptive strategies by farmers. Our results showed that the farmers supposed that temperature and rainfall were highly fluctuating in recent years equally. Farmers adopted different coping and adaptive measures that include crop diversification, input adjustment, water management, asset depletion, income diversification, and migration to sustain their livelihood during stress periods. The agrometeorological data analysis revealed that the agricultural vulnerability to drought risks increased significantly, and the survey results projected that 64.7% of the population is exposed to drought directly or indirectly. Sen’s slope quantification resulted in (0.025 °C) rise in temperature, (− 2.936 mm) decline in rainfall year−1. Modeling future scenarios resulted in an increase in temperature up to 0.7 °C, 1.2 °C, and a decrease in precipitation up to 161.48 mm, 103.5 mm in 2040 and 2060. The study evaluated a huge gap in the provision of drought risk resilience services, crop insurance, and climate-smart training practices to build capacities among farmers to cope with the impacts of extreme weather conditions. Our research might provide the groundwork to upgrade actions to drought prevention and early warning in water scarcity areas. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V.
关键词	Climate risks Drought characteristics Extreme weather events Farmer’s perceptions Food security
语种	英语
来源期刊	Natural Hazards
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/206090
作者单位	Faculty in the Department of Disaster Management and Development Studies, University of Balochistan, Quetta, 87300, Pakistan; College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing, 100193, China; Environmental and Food Economics Department, The Pennsylvania State University, State College, United States; Department of Energy and Environment, TERI School of Advanced Studies, Delhi, 110070, India; Oilseeds Research Institute, Ayub Agricultural Research Institute, Faisalabad, Pakistan; Perjuangan University, Tasikmalaya, 46115, Indonesia; State Key Laboratory of Grassland Agro-Ecosystem, College of Pastoral Agriculture Science and Technology, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730020, China; Hagler Bailly, Islamabad, 46000, Pakistan
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ashraf M.,Arshad A.,Patel P.M.,et al. Quantifying climate-induced drought risk to livelihood and mitigation actions in Balochistan[J],2021.
APA	Ashraf M..,Arshad A..,Patel P.M..,Khan A..,Qamar H..,...&Babar J.R..(2021).Quantifying climate-induced drought risk to livelihood and mitigation actions in Balochistan.Natural Hazards.
MLA	Ashraf M.,et al."Quantifying climate-induced drought risk to livelihood and mitigation actions in Balochistan".Natural Hazards (2021).