气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Assessment of uncertainty in regional and at-site precipitation frequency analysis for the localized region of Ellicott City, Maryland

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s11069-021-04786-7
	Assessment of uncertainty in regional and at-site precipitation frequency analysis for the localized region of Ellicott City, Maryland
	Al Kajbaf A.; Bensi M.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0921030X
起始页码	2513
结束页码	2541
卷号	108 期号:3
英文摘要	Recent heavy rainfall events and flash floods in Ellicott City, Maryland, highlight the importance of having robust and up-to-date estimates of precipitation frequency. NOAA Atlas 14 is the US standard for estimating precipitation frequencies. Volume 2 of the Atlas, which provides precipitation frequency estimates for Maryland, was last updated in 2006 using data through 2000. The present study explores and compares the uncertainty in precipitation frequency estimates arising from factors such as choice of distribution, parameter estimation method, and length of the record (including consideration of more recent data) on estimates from at-site frequency analysis considering stations within 20 km radius of Ellicott City. Further, this study considers choice of distribution, number of stations, and length of the record on the estimates of regional frequency analysis considering the stations within radii of 20, 40 and 60 km of Ellicott City. The results of the at-site analysis show that choice of distribution and length of record are drivers of uncertainty, while, in regional frequency analysis, the main driver of uncertainty is choice of distribution. The effect of inclusion of more recent data had mixed impacts on the site-specific analysis and the effects on the regional frequency analysis were more limited. Comparing the hazard curves obtained from at-site and regional frequency analysis demonstrates the “averaging impacts” that may occur when using regional approaches and highlights how use of a regional approach may potentially mask localized effects in regions such that around Ellicott City. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V.
关键词	At-site frequency analysis Ellicott City Extreme precipitation NOAA Atlas 14 Regional frequency analysis Uncertainty
语种	英语
来源期刊	Natural Hazards
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/206071
作者单位	Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Al Kajbaf A.,Bensi M.. Assessment of uncertainty in regional and at-site precipitation frequency analysis for the localized region of Ellicott City, Maryland[J],2021,108(3).
APA	Al Kajbaf A.,&Bensi M..(2021).Assessment of uncertainty in regional and at-site precipitation frequency analysis for the localized region of Ellicott City, Maryland.Natural Hazards,108(3).
MLA	Al Kajbaf A.,et al."Assessment of uncertainty in regional and at-site precipitation frequency analysis for the localized region of Ellicott City, Maryland".Natural Hazards 108.3(2021).