气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Credibility of design rainfall estimates for drainage infrastructures: extent of disregard in Nigeria and proposed framework for practice

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DOI	10.1007/s11069-021-04889-1
	Credibility of design rainfall estimates for drainage infrastructures: extent of disregard in Nigeria and proposed framework for practice
	Aiyelokun O.; Pham Q.B.; Aiyelokun O.; Malik A.; Adarsh S.; Mohammadi B.; Linh N.T.T.; Zakwan M.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0921030X
英文摘要	Rainfall intensity or depth estimates are vital input for hydrologic and hydraulic models used in designing drainage infrastructures. Unfortunately, these estimates are susceptible to different sources of uncertainties including climate change, which could have high implications on the cost and design of hydraulic structures. This study adopts a systematic literature review to ascertain the disregard of credibility assessment of rainfall estimates in Nigeria. Thereafter, a simple framework for informing the practice of reliability check of rainfall estimates was proposed using freely available open-source tools and applied to the north central region of Nigeria. The study revealed through a synthesis matrix that in the last decade, both empirical and theoretical methods have been applied in predicting design rainfall intensities or depths for different frequencies across Nigeria, but none of the selected studies assessed the credibility of the design estimates. This study has established through the application of the proposed framework that drainage infrastructure designed in the study area using 100–1000-year return periods are more susceptible to error. And that the extent of the credibility of quantitative estimates of extreme rains leading to flooding is not equal for each variability indicator across a large spatial region. Hence, to optimize informed decision-making regarding flood risk reduction by risk assessor, variability and uncertainty of rainfall estimates should be assessed spatially to minimize erroneous deductions. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V.
关键词	Design rainfall estimates Parametric bootstrap Stochastic simulation Two-dimensional Monte Carlo framework Variability and uncertainty analysis
语种	英语
来源期刊	Natural Hazards
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/206069
作者单位	Department of Civil Engineering, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria; Institute of Applied Technology, Thu Dau Mot University, Binh Duong province, Viet Nam; Department of Geospatial Analytics, Olivearc Solutions, Lagos, Nigeria; Punjab Agricultural University, Regional Research Station, Bathinda, Punjab 151001, India; Department of Civil Engineering, TKM College of Engineering, Kollam, 691005, India; Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Sölvegatan 12, Lund, SE-223 62, Sweden; Thuyloi University, 175 Tay Son, Dong Da, Hanoi, Viet Nam; Civil Engineering Department, IIT, Roorkee, India
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Aiyelokun O.,Pham Q.B.,Aiyelokun O.,et al. Credibility of design rainfall estimates for drainage infrastructures: extent of disregard in Nigeria and proposed framework for practice[J],2021.
APA	Aiyelokun O..,Pham Q.B..,Aiyelokun O..,Malik A..,Adarsh S..,...&Zakwan M..(2021).Credibility of design rainfall estimates for drainage infrastructures: extent of disregard in Nigeria and proposed framework for practice.Natural Hazards.
MLA	Aiyelokun O.,et al."Credibility of design rainfall estimates for drainage infrastructures: extent of disregard in Nigeria and proposed framework for practice".Natural Hazards (2021).