气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Risk mechanisms of large group emergency decision-making based on multi-agent simulation

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s11069-020-04023-7
	Risk mechanisms of large group emergency decision-making based on multi-agent simulation
	Yin X.; Xu X.; Chen X.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0921030X
起始页码	1009
结束页码	1034
卷号	103 期号:1
英文摘要	There are many critical sources of risk in large group emergency decision-making. In this paper, we systematically identify individual and group sources of risk in large group emergency decision-making and explore the relationship between each risk factor and two group effects, namely cognitive conflict and relationship conflict. Based on this analysis, we model a large group emergency decision-making risk-causing system. The model allows examination of the effect of key risk factors. These variables include individual acceptance, group structure, interaction mode, decision strategy, and decision-making environment, and variable values are set. A multi-agent simulation model of large group emergency decision-making risk-causing is developed using the Netlogo tool based on opinion dynamics. Through case simulation, we obtain the generalization rule of the causal mechanisms for each risk factor. The simulation shows that controlling the proportion of highly accepted decision-making subjects, increasing the interaction between clusters, and taking necessary anticipatory measures can noticeably reduce decision-making risks and help large teams function in highly dynamic decision-making environments. By highlighting the composition and collective influence of risk factors in large group emergency decision-making, this research offers reference and guidance for strategy selection in emergency decision-making. © 2020, Springer Nature B.V.
关键词	Emergency decision-making Large group Multi-agent simulation Risk cause
英文关键词	cognition; decision making; group behavior; natural hazard; risk factor; software
语种	英语
来源期刊	Natural Hazards
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/206031
作者单位	School of Business, Central South University, Changsha, Hunan 410083, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Yin X.,Xu X.,Chen X.. Risk mechanisms of large group emergency decision-making based on multi-agent simulation[J],2020,103(1).
APA	Yin X.,Xu X.,&Chen X..(2020).Risk mechanisms of large group emergency decision-making based on multi-agent simulation.Natural Hazards,103(1).
MLA	Yin X.,et al."Risk mechanisms of large group emergency decision-making based on multi-agent simulation".Natural Hazards 103.1(2020).