气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Estimation of future extreme precipitation changes in Xinjiang based on RegCM4.4 simulations

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s11069-020-03920-1
	Estimation of future extreme precipitation changes in Xinjiang based on RegCM4.4 simulations
	Xiang-ling T.; Xin L.; Yanwei Z.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0921030X
起始页码	201
结束页码	218
卷号	102 期号:1
英文摘要	Based on IPCC mid- and high-greenhouse gas emission scenarios, we have been performed by using a CMIP5 GCM ensemble to drive the high resolution of Regional Climate Model RegCM4.4, and this study has assessed the model ability for simulating extreme precipitation indices and analyzed possible future changes in 2071–2100 under the A2 emissions scenario. Results indicate that RegCM4.4 performs well in the simulation of extreme precipitation indices and RegCM4.4 model can better reproduce the spatial distribution of extreme precipitation in Xinjiang, but this model is less effective in the Tian Shan Mountains due to topography and altitude. Prediction results show the future precipitation extreme simulation of Xinjiang indicates a tendency that the drought in Xinjiang eases relatively, showing a spatial pattern that the precipitation is gradually reduced from the northwest, the southwest to the southeast; RegCM4.4 simulation results show that indices of rainy days (RR1),number of heavy precipitation days (R10mm), maximum 5-day precipitation (RX5day), very wet day precipitation (R95p), and rainstorm rate (R95pTOT) all show an increasing trend that is more obvious in winter. In Xinjiang, the increase in extreme precipitation would not be entirely beneficial. Too much extreme precipitation will not only challenge the carrying capacity of water conservancy facilities and increase the difficulties in managing water resource, but also induce the heavy precipitation-related disasters. © 2020, Springer Nature B.V.
关键词	Climatic change Extreme precipitation RegCM4.4 Xinjiang
英文关键词	climate modeling; computer simulation; estimation method; extreme event; future prospect; numerical model; precipitation (chemistry); regional climate; Tien Shan
语种	英语
来源期刊	Natural Hazards
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/206004
作者单位	Guilin University of Technology Institute of Earth Science, Guilin, 541004, China; Production and Construction Corps in Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecological Agriculture, Shihezi, 832003, China; Business School, University of Jinan, Jinan, 250002, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Xiang-ling T.,Xin L.,Yanwei Z.. Estimation of future extreme precipitation changes in Xinjiang based on RegCM4.4 simulations[J],2020,102(1).
APA	Xiang-ling T.,Xin L.,&Yanwei Z..(2020).Estimation of future extreme precipitation changes in Xinjiang based on RegCM4.4 simulations.Natural Hazards,102(1).
MLA	Xiang-ling T.,et al."Estimation of future extreme precipitation changes in Xinjiang based on RegCM4.4 simulations".Natural Hazards 102.1(2020).