气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Drought disaster risks under CMIP5 RCP scenarios in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, China

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s11069-019-03811-0
	Drought disaster risks under CMIP5 RCP scenarios in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, China
	Tan C.; Yang J.; Wang X.; Qin D.; Huang B.; Chen H.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0921030X
起始页码	909
结束页码	931
卷号	100 期号:3
英文摘要	The Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region of China (Ningxia), one of main agriculture areas in northwest China, has been severely affected by drought. Based on observed meteorological data, outputs of 20 global climate models and drought disaster data, future climate change and relevant drought hazard in the twenty-first century were projected in Ningxia, with the scenarios of RCP2.6 and RCP4.5; the risks of people, crop, and agriculture economy to drought disasters are quantitatively assessed, with the application of physical vulnerability curve models, probability distribution functions and Monte Carlo simulation method. It is found that the climate in Ningxia is likely to have a warming and wetting tendency in the twenty-first century. The extent of drought hazard is likely to increase. The increase rate is greater under RCP4.5 than that under RCP2.6. In general, the risks of population, crop, and agriculture to drought disasters are likely to increase in Ningxia in the twenty-first century. The magnitude of increase is likely to reach the greatest in the immediate term (2016–2035), followed by the increase in the medium term (2046–2065), and the long term (2081–2100). In comparison with RCP2.6, the drought disaster risks under the scenario of RCP4.5 are likely to increase further in three periods of the twenty-first century. The findings of this work have potential to provide data support for drought disaster risk management and support risk-based decision-making. © 2020, Springer Nature B.V.
关键词	Disaster risk Drought Global climate model (GCM)Ningxia
语种	英语
来源期刊	Natural Hazards
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/205965
作者单位	Institute for Disaster Management and Reconstruction, Sichuan University, Chengdu, 610207, China; Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Earth Surface Process, Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu, 610041, China; State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Sciences, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, 73000, China; Industrial Ecology Programme, Department of Energy and Process Engineering, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, 7491, Norway
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Tan C.,Yang J.,Wang X.,et al. Drought disaster risks under CMIP5 RCP scenarios in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, China[J],2020,100(3).
APA	Tan C.,Yang J.,Wang X.,Qin D.,Huang B.,&Chen H..(2020).Drought disaster risks under CMIP5 RCP scenarios in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, China.Natural Hazards,100(3).
MLA	Tan C.,et al."Drought disaster risks under CMIP5 RCP scenarios in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, China".Natural Hazards 100.3(2020).