气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Prediction of extreme rainfall associated with monsoon depressions over Odisha: an assessment of coastal zone vulnerability at district level

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s11069-019-03633-0
	Prediction of extreme rainfall associated with monsoon depressions over Odisha: an assessment of coastal zone vulnerability at district level
	Swain M.; Pattanayak S.; Mohanty U.C.; Sahu S.C.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0921030X
起始页码	607
结束页码	632
卷号	102 期号:2
英文摘要	The present study investigates the climatological rainfall vulnerability districts associated with monsoon depressions (MDs) over Odisha using both observational and modeling perspectives for a period of 34 years (1980–2013). Four heavy rainfall cases associated with MDs crossed Odisha are simulated with the help of high-resolution advanced research weather research forecasting system, and the rainfall vulnerability mapping for more than 1-mm rainfall values at district level are evaluated. The observational analyses on the frequency of MDs for the study period exhibit a decreasing trend. It is noticed that the rainfall vulnerability districts are present to the left side of the track of the MDs. The model simulation result depicts that the location of formation of MDs is always behind the actual position of the system and also do the landfall after the actual time. The model has a positive bias in the prediction of the intensity of rainfall and a spatial shift in the distribution of rainfall. The model is showing higher Heidke skill for less intensity rainfall threshold values. The analysis also suggests that the maximum rainfall vulnerable districts are present 150–200 km away from the original position, still these districts are present to the left side of the MDs. Analysis on the horizontal and vertical structure of MD suggests that the presence of relative humidity is less in WRF and the distribution of relative vorticity is not same as the observation, which may be the major causes of having such error in predicting heavy rainfall. © 2019, Springer Nature B.V.
关键词	Indian summer monsoon Monsoon depression Odisha Rainfall vulnerability index WRF
英文关键词	climatology; coastal zone; extreme event; monsoon; precipitation intensity; prediction; rainfall; relative humidity; vorticity; vulnerability; weather forecasting; India; Odisha
语种	英语
来源期刊	Natural Hazards
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/205961
作者单位	School of Earth, Ocean and Climate Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology Bhubaneswar, Bhubaneswar, India; National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, Noida, India; India Meteorological Department, Bhubaneswar, India
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Swain M.,Pattanayak S.,Mohanty U.C.,et al. Prediction of extreme rainfall associated with monsoon depressions over Odisha: an assessment of coastal zone vulnerability at district level[J],2020,102(2).
APA	Swain M.,Pattanayak S.,Mohanty U.C.,&Sahu S.C..(2020).Prediction of extreme rainfall associated with monsoon depressions over Odisha: an assessment of coastal zone vulnerability at district level.Natural Hazards,102(2).
MLA	Swain M.,et al."Prediction of extreme rainfall associated with monsoon depressions over Odisha: an assessment of coastal zone vulnerability at district level".Natural Hazards 102.2(2020).