气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Short-term earthquake prediction in Kamchatka using low-frequency magnetic fields

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DOI	10.1007/s11069-019-03839-2
	Short-term earthquake prediction in Kamchatka using low-frequency magnetic fields
	Schekotov A.; Chebrov D.; Hayakawa M.; Belyaev G.; Berseneva N.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0921030X
起始页码	735
结束页码	755
卷号	100 期号:2
英文摘要	This paper is devoted to a method of short-term earthquake (EQ) prediction in Kamchatka, Russia. Properties of low-frequency magnetic fields are the basics of the method, and we used two seismo-electromagnetic phenomena in the EQ prediction: 1. seismo-ionospheric depression in the frequency range of 0.01–0.1 Hz (ULF depression), 2. seismo-atmospheric radiation in the frequency range of 1–30 Hz (ULF/ELF radiation). It is now generally accepted that gas eruption before an EQ causes these ULF/ELF phenomena. We propose a hypothesis that gas emanates from the area in the bottom of Kuril–Kamchatka or Aleutian trenches closest to the epicenter of a forthcoming EQ. The three parameters of an EQ are (i) when (time), (ii) where (position) a next EQ is coming with (iii) how big (magnitude) in the short-term EQ prediction. Position of the source of atmospheric radiation gives an estimate of the epicenter location. Then, we estimate the local magnitude in consequence of its statistical dependence on ULF depression and epicenter distance. Date of a coming EQ is determined by the statistical dependence of delays of EQs relative to the dates of their precursors. The result of application of this method to real magnetic field data is illustrated by official prediction processes during a period of March–May 2016. Limits and possible errors of the method as well as methods to enhance the reliability of the prediction are discussed. © 2019, Springer Nature B.V.
关键词	Earthquake (EQ) prediction EQ preparation process Gas emanation Lithosphere–atmosphere–ionosphere coupling Seismo-electromagnetic phenomena Subduction zone
语种	英语
来源期刊	Natural Hazards
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/205927
作者单位	The Schmidt Institute of Physics of the Earth of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IPE RAS), 10-1 B. Gruzinskaya, Moscow, 123242, Russian Federation; Kamchatka Branch of Geophysical Survey of Russian Academy of Sciences, KB GS RAS, Petropavlovsk-Kamchatski, Russian Federation; Hayakawa Institute of Seismo Electromagnetics, Co. Ltd. (Hi-SEM), UEC (University of Electro-Communications), Alliance Center #521, 1-1-1 Kojima-cho, Chofu, Tokyo 182-0026, Japan; Advanced Wireless & Communications Research Center (AWCC), UEC, 1-5-1 Chofugaoka, Chofu, Tokyo 182-8585, Japan; Pushkov Institute of Terrestial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radiowave Propagation (IZMIRAN), RAS, Troitsk, Kaluzhskoe Hwy 4, Moscow, 108840, Russian Federation; Lomonosov Moscow State University, 1-2 Leninskie Gory, Moscow, 119991, Russian Federation
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Schekotov A.,Chebrov D.,Hayakawa M.,et al. Short-term earthquake prediction in Kamchatka using low-frequency magnetic fields[J],2020,100(2).
APA	Schekotov A.,Chebrov D.,Hayakawa M.,Belyaev G.,&Berseneva N..(2020).Short-term earthquake prediction in Kamchatka using low-frequency magnetic fields.Natural Hazards,100(2).
MLA	Schekotov A.,et al."Short-term earthquake prediction in Kamchatka using low-frequency magnetic fields".Natural Hazards 100.2(2020).