气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The role of physical geographic parameters affecting past (1980–2010) and future (2020

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DOI	10.1007/s11069-020-03930-z
	The role of physical geographic parameters affecting past (1980–2010) and future (2020–2049) thermal stress in Iran
	Roshan G.; Grab S.W.; Najafi M.S.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0921030X
起始页码	365
结束页码	399
卷号	102 期号:1
英文摘要	In this study, the wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT) validated biometeorological index is used to monitor and project future human thermal stress in Iran. The meteorological components required to calculate this index include dry and wet temperatures, relative humidity and radiation. To monitor and project thermal stress, data for two time periods are used: (i) baseline data for the period 1980–2010 and (ii) Can-ESM2 model outputs from the CMIP5 model series, which projects values for the period 2020–2049. Four physical geographic factors are used for modeling WBGT frequency; these include station height (elevation), distance from nearest large water body, latitude and longitude. To establish the role of these components on WBGT extreme values, a weighted geographical regression method is used. Findings show that by considering these variables in the form of multivariate weighted regressions, WBGT threshold values are reliably modeled. Based on projected global warming scenarios in coming decades, the threshold of thermal stress occurrence for most regions of Iran shows larger values than those for the reference period. Parameters of latitude, longitude and distance from a large water body will have an incremental impact as contributors to the occurrence of future thermal stress, relative to the reference period. Of these, latitude will have the greatest impact on thermal stress (6.3%), while that for longitude and distance from a large water body will be 2.4% and 1.4%, respectively. However, station elevation will have a reduced impact on thermal stress (by 4.1%). © 2020, Springer Nature B.V.
关键词	Climate change scenarios Geographic weighted regression Human biometeorology Iran Spatial analysis Thermal stress
英文关键词	climatology; elevation; future prospect; physical geography; radiation budget; relative humidity; temperature effect; thermal structure; weather forecasting; Iran
语种	英语
来源期刊	Natural Hazards
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/205908
作者单位	Department of Geography, Golestan University, Gorgan, Iran; School of Geography, Archaeology and Environmental Studies, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa; Dep. of Water Resources Research (WRR), Ministry of Energy, Water Research Institute (WRI), Tehran, Iran
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Roshan G.,Grab S.W.,Najafi M.S.. The role of physical geographic parameters affecting past (1980–2010) and future (2020–2049) thermal stress in Iran[J],2020,102(1).
APA	Roshan G.,Grab S.W.,&Najafi M.S..(2020).The role of physical geographic parameters affecting past (1980–2010) and future (2020–2049) thermal stress in Iran.Natural Hazards,102(1).
MLA	Roshan G.,et al."The role of physical geographic parameters affecting past (1980–2010) and future (2020–2049) thermal stress in Iran".Natural Hazards 102.1(2020).