气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): A coupled wave, tide and storm surge operational forecasting system for South Africa: validation and physical description

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DOI	10.1007/s11069-020-04042-4
	A coupled wave, tide and storm surge operational forecasting system for South Africa: validation and physical description
	Rautenbach C.; Daniels T.; de Vos M.; Barnes M.A.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0921030X
起始页码	1407
结束页码	1439
卷号	103 期号:1
英文摘要	Regional storm tidal levels of the South African coastline are investigated by means of a calibrated and validated numerical model. The model was developed utilizing the shallow water hydrodynamic model, Delft3D. This model was coupled (online) with a non-stationary spectral wave model (developed in the Simulating WAves in the Nearshore (SWAN) numerical code). A local, 4.4 km version of the Unified Model was applied as atmospheric forcing for the coupled system. The models presented in this study form part of the operational marine forecasts of the South African Weather Service, Wave and Storm Surge model. The operational protocol and model calibration and validation are presented via statistical correlations with measured water levels at six South African coastal locations. The main calibration parameters and thus physical drivers were winds, atmospheric pressure and waves. The validated numerical model is used to provide an experimental physical description of South African storm surge characteristics, per coastline. The dominant driver of South African storm surge is winds associated with mid-latitude cyclones. Further novelty in the present study is the quantification of the relative contribution of extreme storm wave set-up to the South African storm surge signal. This wave set-up contributes approximately 20% of the total surge signal in the southwest, with winds contributing approximately 55%. The importance of the continental shelves is also elucidated concerning the frictional shoaling effects of the long surge wave propagation. © 2020, Springer Nature B.V.
关键词	Delft 3D Extreme events Mid-latitude cyclones Numerical modelling Operational forecasting South Africa Storm surge SWAN Waves
英文关键词	atmospheric forcing; model validation; numerical model; ocean tide; shoaling wave; storm surge; wave propagation; weather forecasting; South Africa
语种	英语
来源期刊	Natural Hazards
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/205893
作者单位	Marine Research Unit, South African Weather Service, Cape Town, South Africa; Institute for Coastal and Marine Research, Nelson Mandela University, Port Elizabeth, South Africa; Department of Oceanography and Marine Research Institute, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa; Climate Systems Analysis Group, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa; Department of Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Rautenbach C.,Daniels T.,de Vos M.,et al. A coupled wave, tide and storm surge operational forecasting system for South Africa: validation and physical description[J],2020,103(1).
APA	Rautenbach C.,Daniels T.,de Vos M.,&Barnes M.A..(2020).A coupled wave, tide and storm surge operational forecasting system for South Africa: validation and physical description.Natural Hazards,103(1).
MLA	Rautenbach C.,et al."A coupled wave, tide and storm surge operational forecasting system for South Africa: validation and physical description".Natural Hazards 103.1(2020).