气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Pan-European hydrodynamic models and their ability to identify compound floods

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DOI	10.1007/s11069-020-03902-3
	Pan-European hydrodynamic models and their ability to identify compound floods
	Paprotny D.; Vousdoukas M.I.; Morales-Nápoles O.; Jonkman S.N.; Feyen L.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0921030X
起始页码	933
结束页码	957
卷号	101 期号:3
英文摘要	The interaction between storm surges and inland run-off has been gaining increasing attention recently, as they have the potential to result in compound floods. In Europe, several flood events of this type have been recorded in the past century in Belgium, France, Ireland, Italy and UK. First projections of compound flood hazard under climate change have been made, but no study has so far analysed whether existing, independent climate and hydrodynamic models are able to reproduce the co-occurrence of storm surges, precipitation, river discharges or waves. Here, we investigate the dependence between the different drivers in different observational and modelled data set, utilizing gauge records and high-resolution outputs of climate reanalyses and hindcasts, hydrodynamic models of European coasts and rivers. The results show considerable regional differences in strength of the dependence in surge–precipitation and surge–discharge pairs. The models reproduce those dependencies, and the time lags between the flood drivers, rather well in north-western Europe, but less successfully in the southern part. Further, we identified several compound flood events in the reanalysis data. We were able to link most of those modelled events with historical reports of flood or storm losses. However, false positives and false negatives were also present in the reanalysis and several large compound floods were missed by the reanalysis. All in all, the study still shows that accurate representation of compound floods by independent models of each driver is possible, even if not yet achievable at every location. © 2020, The Author(s).
关键词	Hindcast Precipitation Reanalysis River discharge Storm surge
英文关键词	climate change; flood; hydrodynamics; modeling; runoff; storm surge; Belgium; France; Ireland; Italy; United Kingdom
语种	英语
来源期刊	Natural Hazards
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/205865
作者单位	Section Hydrology, Helmholtz Centre Potsdam, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Telegrafenberg, Potsdam, 14473, Germany; Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Delft University of Technology, Stevinweg 1, Delft, 2628 CN, Netherlands; European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Via Enrico Fermi 2749, Ispra, 21027, Italy
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Paprotny D.,Vousdoukas M.I.,Morales-Nápoles O.,et al. Pan-European hydrodynamic models and their ability to identify compound floods[J],2020,101(3).
APA	Paprotny D.,Vousdoukas M.I.,Morales-Nápoles O.,Jonkman S.N.,&Feyen L..(2020).Pan-European hydrodynamic models and their ability to identify compound floods.Natural Hazards,101(3).
MLA	Paprotny D.,et al."Pan-European hydrodynamic models and their ability to identify compound floods".Natural Hazards 101.3(2020).