气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Modeling radon time series on the North Anatolian Fault Zone, Turkiye: Fourier transforms and Monte Carlo simulations

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DOI	10.1007/s11069-020-04200-8
	Modeling radon time series on the North Anatolian Fault Zone, Turkiye: Fourier transforms and Monte Carlo simulations
	Muhammad A.; Külahcı F.; Akram P.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0921030X
起始页码	979
结束页码	996
卷号	104 期号:1
英文摘要	Time series studies depend mostly on stochastic models for radon seasonal, annual or temporal variability explanations. Others solve radon transport steady state equation analytically to explain radon variability with soil depth. In order to understand radon variability comprehensively, there is the need for a model which encapsulates most required information about its seasonal variability from different aspects. In this paper, soil radon time series is modeled on the North Anatolian Fault Zone in Turkiye. The general PDE representing radon soil dynamics and boundary conditions is employed successfully through a hybrid regression model, which captures and forecasts radon seasonal anomaly as well as its depth profile. An efficient model can be used to estimate other radon-related variables like diffusion rate and velocity. The model evaluation criteria facilitated the forecast of almost 86% variation of radon concentration with an RMSE value of 9.4 Bqm−3, which is reasonable considering the nature of data used. This model is simple and can provide a realistic statistical outcome on any radon data. The relationship between Rn and soil temperature was also investigated. Radon seasonal anomaly is observed to attain its maximum and minimum values in summer and winter seasons. A solid correlation is obtained between radon and soil temperature at various depths. The radon anomaly in normal conditions is found to correlate strongly with the model. Monte Carlo simulation procedure is affected by taking the mean of 300 simulation paths within ±2σ from the regression curve with practically acceptable results. © 2020, Springer Nature B.V.
关键词	Earthquake precursors Forecasting Fourier transforms Monte Carlo Radon time series Soil temperature
英文关键词	boundary condition; computer simulation; concentration (composition); correlation; earthquake precursor; earthquake prediction; fault zone; Fourier transform; modeling; Monte Carlo analysis; numerical model; radon isotope; soil temperature; time series; Anatolia; Turkey
语种	英语
来源期刊	Natural Hazards
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/205845
作者单位	Faculty of Science, Department of Physics, Nuclear Physics Division, Fırat University, Elazig, TR-23119, Turkey
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Muhammad A.,Külahcı F.,Akram P.. Modeling radon time series on the North Anatolian Fault Zone, Turkiye: Fourier transforms and Monte Carlo simulations[J],2020,104(1).
APA	Muhammad A.,Külahcı F.,&Akram P..(2020).Modeling radon time series on the North Anatolian Fault Zone, Turkiye: Fourier transforms and Monte Carlo simulations.Natural Hazards,104(1).
MLA	Muhammad A.,et al."Modeling radon time series on the North Anatolian Fault Zone, Turkiye: Fourier transforms and Monte Carlo simulations".Natural Hazards 104.1(2020).