气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Using Dempster–Shafer theory to model earthquake events

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s11069-020-04066-w
	Using Dempster–Shafer theory to model earthquake events
	Mokarram M.; Pourghasemi H.R.; Tiefenbacher J.P.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0921030X
起始页码	1943
结束页码	1959
卷号	103 期号:2
英文摘要	In this study, Dempster–Shafer theory (DST) is integrated into a geographic information system to model vulnerability of the land surface to earthquake events in northwestern Kermanshah Province, Iran, to predict where damage is most likely to occur. DST has never been used to spatially model earthquake vulnerability. To achieve this, data layers for several environmental attributes—aspect, elevation, lithology, slope angle, land use, distance from river courses, distance from roads, and distance from faults—were compiled in ArcGIS 10.2.2 software. Using membership functions, fuzzy maps were generated for each parameter. These fuzzy maps provided input data for the DST model. The predicted values were analyzed and compared at three confidence levels to determine the effectiveness of the model. The results are that 11.14%, 14.14%, and 17.18% (95%, 99%, and 99.5% confidence levels, respectively) of the study area are predicted to be susceptible to earthquakes based on receiver operating characteristic curves. The results also show that, according to the area under the curve (AUC) values (0.967, 0.828, and 0.849 for 95%, 99%, and 99.5% confidence levels, respectively), DST model generates earthquake zoning maps with high accuracy. Therefore, this model can be used for generating earthquake zoning maps with confidence levels that best suit the economic conditions and significance of the region. © 2020, Springer Nature B.V.
关键词	Dempster–Shafer theory (DST)Earthquakes Fuzzy mapping Geographic information system (GIS)Spatial modeling
英文关键词	earthquake event; GIS; land surface; seismic zone; vulnerability; Iran; Kermanshah
语种	英语
来源期刊	Natural Hazards
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/205840
作者单位	Department of Range and Watershed Management, College of Agriculture and Natural Resources of Darab, Shiraz University, Darab, 71946-84471, Iran; Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Engineering, College of Agriculture, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran; Department of Geography, Texas State University, San Marcos, TX, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Mokarram M.,Pourghasemi H.R.,Tiefenbacher J.P.. Using Dempster–Shafer theory to model earthquake events[J],2020,103(2).
APA	Mokarram M.,Pourghasemi H.R.,&Tiefenbacher J.P..(2020).Using Dempster–Shafer theory to model earthquake events.Natural Hazards,103(2).
MLA	Mokarram M.,et al."Using Dempster–Shafer theory to model earthquake events".Natural Hazards 103.2(2020).