气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Pseudo-climate modelling study on projected changes in extreme extratropical cyclones, storm waves and surges under CMIP5 multi-model ensemble: Baltic Sea perspective

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DOI	10.1007/s11069-020-03911-2
	Pseudo-climate modelling study on projected changes in extreme extratropical cyclones, storm waves and surges under CMIP5 multi-model ensemble: Baltic Sea perspective
	Mäll M.; Nakamura R.; Suursaar Ü.; Shibayama T.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0921030X
起始页码	67
结束页码	99
卷号	102 期号:1
英文摘要	In order to estimate the possible parameters of future extreme extratropical cyclones (ETCs), a pseudo-climate modelling study of three historical storms originating from the Atlantic Ocean and one from the Black Sea area was performed using multi-model approach considering IPCC emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for the twenty-first century. Applying Weather Research and Forecasting atmosphere model (WRF), Finite Volume Community Ocean model (FVCOM-SWAVE) and the Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) model, the changes in initial conditions in atmospheric air temperature, sea surface temperature and relative humidity were considered on the basis of 14 CMIP5 general circulation models ensemble. According to the future scenario results, no notable changes are expected in minimum atmospheric pressure within the ETCs of the future; however, the low pressure area was slightly larger and the strong wind zone was extending further south with greater peak wind speeds in the future (year 2081–2100) simulations. This, in turn, yielded a small surge height increase at Pärnu under RCP4.5 scenario; however, under RCP8.5 scenario the surge increase was up to 22–59 cm. Westerly approaching ETCs will bring more precipitation to the Baltic Sea area in the (warmer) future. In case of a southerly cyclone, the results were more mixed. An insignificant increase in wave heights during extreme storm conditions occurred. Although RCP8.5 future scenario is usually considered as unrealistic, the results of this study still suggest that the extreme ETCs may become more dangerous in the future, although probably not as certainly as tropical cyclones. © 2020, Springer Nature B.V.
关键词	Climate change Cyclone tracks ETC FVCOM-SWAVE Precipitation Sea level Storm surge
英文关键词	air temperature; climate modeling; ensemble forecasting; extratropical cyclone; extreme event; relative humidity; storm surge; surface temperature; wave height; weather forecasting; westerly; Atlantic Ocean; Baltic Sea
语种	英语
来源期刊	Natural Hazards
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/205814
作者单位	Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Waseda University, 3-4-1 Okubo, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, 169-8555, Japan; Civil Engineering Program, Faculty of Engineering, Niigata University, 8050, Ninocho, Nishi-ku, Niigata-shi, Niigata 950-2181, Japan; Estonian Marine Institute, University of Tartu, Mäealuse 14, Tallinn, 12618, Estonia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Mäll M.,Nakamura R.,Suursaar Ü.,et al. Pseudo-climate modelling study on projected changes in extreme extratropical cyclones, storm waves and surges under CMIP5 multi-model ensemble: Baltic Sea perspective[J],2020,102(1).
APA	Mäll M.,Nakamura R.,Suursaar Ü.,&Shibayama T..(2020).Pseudo-climate modelling study on projected changes in extreme extratropical cyclones, storm waves and surges under CMIP5 multi-model ensemble: Baltic Sea perspective.Natural Hazards,102(1).
MLA	Mäll M.,et al."Pseudo-climate modelling study on projected changes in extreme extratropical cyclones, storm waves and surges under CMIP5 multi-model ensemble: Baltic Sea perspective".Natural Hazards 102.1(2020).