气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Short-term rockburst risk prediction using ensemble learning methods

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DOI	10.1007/s11069-020-04255-7
	Short-term rockburst risk prediction using ensemble learning methods
	Liang W.; Sari A.; Zhao G.; McKinnon S.D.; Wu H.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0921030X
起始页码	1923
结束页码	1946
卷号	104 期号:2
英文摘要	Short-term rockburst risk prediction plays a crucial role in ensuring the safety of workers. However, it is a challenging task in deep rock engineering as it depends on many factors. More recently, machine learning approaches have started to be used to predict rockbursts. In this paper, ensemble learning methods including random forest (RF), adaptive boosting, gradient boosted decision tree (GBDT), extreme gradient boosting and light gradient boosting machine were adopted to predict short-term rockburst risk using microseismic data from the tunnels of Jinping-II hydropower project in China. First, labeled rockburst data with six indicators based on microseismic monitoring were collected. Then, the original rockburst data were randomly divided into training and test sets with a 70/30 sampling strategy. The hyperparameters of the ensemble learning methods were tuned with fivefold cross-validation during training. Finally, the predictive performance of each model was evaluated using classification accuracy, Cohen’s Kappa, precision, recall and F-measure metrics on the test set. The results showed that RF and GBDT possessed better overall performance. RF obtained the highest average accuracy of 0.8000 for all cases, whereas GBDT achieved the highest value for high (moderate and intense) risk cases with an accuracy of 0.9167. The proposed methodology can provide effective guidance for short-term rockburst risk management in deep underground projects. © 2020, Springer Nature B.V.
关键词	Ensemble learning Microseismic monitoring Prediction Rockburst Short-term risk
英文关键词	accuracy assessment; ensemble forecasting; guideline; hydroelectric power plant; machine learning; microearthquake; mining; monitoring; performance assessment; prediction; risk assessment; rock mechanics; rockburst; safety; seismic data; seismic survey; China; Jinping I Hydropower Station; Sichuan
语种	英语
来源期刊	Natural Hazards
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/205794
作者单位	School of Resources and Safety Engineering, Central South University, Changsha, 410083, China; The Robert M. Buchan Department of Mining, Queen’s University, Kingston, K7L 3N6, Canada; School of Mines, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou, 221116, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Liang W.,Sari A.,Zhao G.,et al. Short-term rockburst risk prediction using ensemble learning methods[J],2020,104(2).
APA	Liang W.,Sari A.,Zhao G.,McKinnon S.D.,&Wu H..(2020).Short-term rockburst risk prediction using ensemble learning methods.Natural Hazards,104(2).
MLA	Liang W.,et al."Short-term rockburst risk prediction using ensemble learning methods".Natural Hazards 104.2(2020).