| DOI | 10.1007/s11069-020-03970-5
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| Thinking outside the polygon: a study of tornado warning perception outside of warning polygon bounds |
| Krocak M.J.; Ernst S.; Allan J.N.; Wehde W.; Ripberger J.T.; Silva C.L.; Jenkins-Smith H.C.
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| 发表日期 | 2020
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| ISSN | 0921030X
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| 起始页码 | 1351
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| 结束页码 | 1368
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| 卷号 | 102期号:3 |
| 英文摘要 | When the National Weather Service (NWS) issues a tornado warning, the alert is rapidly and widely disseminated to individuals in the general area of the warning. Historically, the assumption has been that a false-negative warning perception (i.e., when someone located within a warning polygon does not believe they have received a tornado warning) carries a higher cost than a false-positive warning perception (i.e., when someone located outside the warning area believes they have received a warning). While many studies investigate tornado warning false alarms (i.e., when the NWS issues a tornado warning, but a tornado does not actually occur), less work focuses on studying individuals outside of the warning polygon bounds who believe they received a warning (i.e., false-positive perceptions). This work attempts to quantify the occurrence of false-positive perceptions and possible factors associated with the rate of occurrence. Following two separate storm events, Oklahomans were asked whether they perceived a tornado warning. Their geolocated responses were then compared to issued warning polygons. Individuals closer to tornado warnings or within a different type of warning (e.g., a severe thunderstorm warning) are more likely to report a false-positive perception than those farther away or outside of other hazard warnings. Further work is needed to understand the rate of false-positive perceptions across different hazards and how this may influence warning response and trust in the National Weather Service. © 2020, Springer Nature B.V. |
| 关键词 | False alarm effectInformation receptionRisk analysisTornado warnings |
| 英文关键词 | natural hazard; perception; polygon; tornado; warning system; weather forecasting |
| 语种 | 英语
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| 来源期刊 | Natural Hazards
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| 文献类型 | 期刊论文
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| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/205770
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| 作者单位 | Center for Risk and Crisis Management, University of Oklahoma, 5 Partners Place, 201 Stephenson Parkway, Suite 2300, Norman, OK 73019, United States; National Institute for Risk and Resilience, 5 Partners Place, 201 Stephenson Parkway, Suite 2300, Norman, OK 73019, United States; Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies, National Weather Center, 120 David L. Boren Blvd., Suite 2100, Norman, OK 73072, United States; NOAA/OAR National Severe Storms Laboratory, National Weather Center, 120 David L. Boren Blvd., Norman, OK 73072, United States
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推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
Krocak M.J.,Ernst S.,Allan J.N.,et al. Thinking outside the polygon: a study of tornado warning perception outside of warning polygon bounds[J],2020,102(3).
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| APA |
Krocak M.J..,Ernst S..,Allan J.N..,Wehde W..,Ripberger J.T..,...&Jenkins-Smith H.C..(2020).Thinking outside the polygon: a study of tornado warning perception outside of warning polygon bounds.Natural Hazards,102(3).
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| MLA |
Krocak M.J.,et al."Thinking outside the polygon: a study of tornado warning perception outside of warning polygon bounds".Natural Hazards 102.3(2020).
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