气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Thinking outside the polygon: a study of tornado warning perception outside of warning polygon bounds

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s11069-020-03970-5
	Thinking outside the polygon: a study of tornado warning perception outside of warning polygon bounds
	Krocak M.J.; Ernst S.; Allan J.N.; Wehde W.; Ripberger J.T.; Silva C.L.; Jenkins-Smith H.C.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0921030X
起始页码	1351
结束页码	1368
卷号	102 期号:3
英文摘要	When the National Weather Service (NWS) issues a tornado warning, the alert is rapidly and widely disseminated to individuals in the general area of the warning. Historically, the assumption has been that a false-negative warning perception (i.e., when someone located within a warning polygon does not believe they have received a tornado warning) carries a higher cost than a false-positive warning perception (i.e., when someone located outside the warning area believes they have received a warning). While many studies investigate tornado warning false alarms (i.e., when the NWS issues a tornado warning, but a tornado does not actually occur), less work focuses on studying individuals outside of the warning polygon bounds who believe they received a warning (i.e., false-positive perceptions). This work attempts to quantify the occurrence of false-positive perceptions and possible factors associated with the rate of occurrence. Following two separate storm events, Oklahomans were asked whether they perceived a tornado warning. Their geolocated responses were then compared to issued warning polygons. Individuals closer to tornado warnings or within a different type of warning (e.g., a severe thunderstorm warning) are more likely to report a false-positive perception than those farther away or outside of other hazard warnings. Further work is needed to understand the rate of false-positive perceptions across different hazards and how this may influence warning response and trust in the National Weather Service. © 2020, Springer Nature B.V.
关键词	False alarm effect Information reception Risk analysis Tornado warnings
英文关键词	natural hazard; perception; polygon; tornado; warning system; weather forecasting
语种	英语
来源期刊	Natural Hazards
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/205770
作者单位	Center for Risk and Crisis Management, University of Oklahoma, 5 Partners Place, 201 Stephenson Parkway, Suite 2300, Norman, OK 73019, United States; National Institute for Risk and Resilience, 5 Partners Place, 201 Stephenson Parkway, Suite 2300, Norman, OK 73019, United States; Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies, National Weather Center, 120 David L. Boren Blvd., Suite 2100, Norman, OK 73072, United States; NOAA/OAR National Severe Storms Laboratory, National Weather Center, 120 David L. Boren Blvd., Norman, OK 73072, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Krocak M.J.,Ernst S.,Allan J.N.,et al. Thinking outside the polygon: a study of tornado warning perception outside of warning polygon bounds[J],2020,102(3).
APA	Krocak M.J..,Ernst S..,Allan J.N..,Wehde W..,Ripberger J.T..,...&Jenkins-Smith H.C..(2020).Thinking outside the polygon: a study of tornado warning perception outside of warning polygon bounds.Natural Hazards,102(3).
MLA	Krocak M.J.,et al."Thinking outside the polygon: a study of tornado warning perception outside of warning polygon bounds".Natural Hazards 102.3(2020).