气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The use of joint probability analysis to predict water yield for Thomson catchment in Victoria, Australia

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s11069-020-04288-y
	The use of joint probability analysis to predict water yield for Thomson catchment in Victoria, Australia
	Khastagir A.; Jayasuriya N.; Bhuiyan M.A.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0921030X
起始页码	2619
结束页码	2634
卷号	104 期号:3
英文摘要	Bushfires in water supply catchments can adversely impact the reliability of water supply and thus threaten the wellbeing and prosperity of a city. Frequent fire events are looming to threaten water supply from the forested catchments of Victoria, Australia. Melbourne, the capital of Victoria, has to meet growing water demand due to population increase and economic development. In recent years, the state has confronted with severe drought conditions, resulting in a considerable reduction of the water supply yield of the catchments. These continued multi-year droughts culminated into the latest major bushfire in 2009 (Black Saturday). Thomson catchment, the largest water supply catchment supplying water in Melbourne is fully forested. This catchment is comprised of different Ash-type forests, Mixed species, Alpine vegetation, and Scrubs. The study noted that there is probability of occurrence of high danger fire events at 1 in 20-year return period for Thomson catchment. The objective of this study was to carry out a joint probability analysis for different percentages of catchment burning, if a 20-year fire event occurs at least once between 2010 and the given year, and determine the percent reductions in water yield from years 2030 to 2090. Based on the analysis carried out in the study, if 5% of the Ash-type forest is burnt once since 2010, the combined reduction of the total water yield would be 6.75% (16,968 ML/year) by 2090. © 2020, Springer Nature B.V.
关键词	Bushfires Joint probability analysis Thomson reservoir Water yield
英文关键词	bushfire; drought; forested catchment; prediction; probability; water supply; water yield; Australia; Thomson Reservoir; Victoria [Australia]
语种	英语
来源期刊	Natural Hazards
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/205760
作者单位	School of Vocational Engineering, Health and Sciences, RMIT University, Melbourne, Australia; School of Engineering, RMIT University, Melbourne, Australia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Khastagir A.,Jayasuriya N.,Bhuiyan M.A.. The use of joint probability analysis to predict water yield for Thomson catchment in Victoria, Australia[J],2020,104(3).
APA	Khastagir A.,Jayasuriya N.,&Bhuiyan M.A..(2020).The use of joint probability analysis to predict water yield for Thomson catchment in Victoria, Australia.Natural Hazards,104(3).
MLA	Khastagir A.,et al."The use of joint probability analysis to predict water yield for Thomson catchment in Victoria, Australia".Natural Hazards 104.3(2020).