气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Probabilistic modeling of disrupted infrastructures due to fallen trees subjected to extreme winds in urban community

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s11069-020-03969-y
	Probabilistic modeling of disrupted infrastructures due to fallen trees subjected to extreme winds in urban community
	Hou G.; Chen S.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0921030X
起始页码	1323
结束页码	1350
卷号	102 期号:3
英文摘要	Tree failures due to strong winds in urban areas cause extensive direct and indirect economic and environmental loss, including disrupting adjacent infrastructures, such as buildings, underground pipelines, roads and overhead powerlines. To effectively improve the resilience of a community subjected to extreme wind events through prevention, response and recovery, it becomes critical to rationally assess the risks of wind-induced tree failures and the disruptions to different types of infrastructures due to fallen trees. An integrated probabilistic methodology to model the performance of disrupted infrastructures is developed for fallen urban trees subjected to extreme winds in a typical community. Firstly, the finite element modeling of the trees subjected to wind loads is conducted and based on which the windthrow fragility curves of several typical urban tree species are developed. Secondly, a probabilistic framework is developed based on the fragility results to characterize the disrupted scenarios and further predict the disruption probability of some critical infrastructures due to fallen trees. The matrix-based system reliability (MSR) method is introduced to assess the transportation network performance. The proposed framework and MSR method are demonstrated in detail on studying the overhead powerline and transportation network of a small urban community in the city of Fort Collins, Colorado. In the demonstrative example, the probabilities of powerline disruption, road closure, and origin–destination disconnection and travel time reliability under different wind conditions are predicted. Finally, mitigation efforts such as crown thinning of trees are discussed to reduce possible risks of disrupting the infrastructures. © 2020, Springer Nature B.V.
关键词	Fragility curves Infrastructure disruptions Power Probabilistic Traffic Trees Windthrow
英文关键词	damage mechanics; extreme event; finite element method; hazard management; infrastructure; meteorological hazard; modeling; numerical model; probability; urban area; wind velocity; Colorado; Fort Collins; United States
语种	英语
来源期刊	Natural Hazards
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/205727
作者单位	Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Hou G.,Chen S.. Probabilistic modeling of disrupted infrastructures due to fallen trees subjected to extreme winds in urban community[J],2020,102(3).
APA	Hou G.,&Chen S..(2020).Probabilistic modeling of disrupted infrastructures due to fallen trees subjected to extreme winds in urban community.Natural Hazards,102(3).
MLA	Hou G.,et al."Probabilistic modeling of disrupted infrastructures due to fallen trees subjected to extreme winds in urban community".Natural Hazards 102.3(2020).