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DOI10.1007/s11069-020-03957-2
Homeostatic representation for risk decision making: a novel multi-method simulation approach for evacuation under volcanic eruption
Favereau M.; Robledo L.F.; Bull M.T.
发表日期2020
ISSN0921030X
起始页码29
结束页码56
卷号103期号:1
英文摘要All decision-making processes are complex and include a high number of variables. Particularly, decisions related to disaster risk reduction despite having an inherent uncertainty, depend on many factors associated with the inhabitants in danger, risk disaster management authorities, previous experiences, among others. Although considerable research has been carried out to understand the evacuation processes undergoing among different types of natural hazards, few of them consider psychosocial variables under a dynamic approach. This research proposes a novel way of representing decision making using the risk homeostasis theory approach. We developed a multi-method simulation model to gain an understanding of how individuals react and what are the decision-making processes undergoing a volcanic eruption. For this, we developed a system dynamics (SD) model that captures the psychosocial decision-making process of individuals facing a volcanic eruption. This theory proposes that individuals will make decisions to balance their levels of perception and acceptance of risk and that, in addition, they depend on certain motivational and cognitive variables. Once the evacuation decision making was captured by the SD model, we represented the evacuation process through agent-based simulation based on the relationship between evacuation probability and the difference between risk perception and risk acceptance levels. For experimentation and validation methods, we worked with the 2008 Chaitén (southern Chile) volcanic eruption and further population evacuation as a use case scenario. © 2020, Springer Nature B.V.
关键词Decision makingEvacuationMulti-method simulationRisk homeostasisVolcanic eruptions
英文关键词decision making; disaster management; natural hazard; risk perception; volcanic eruption; Chaiten; Chile; Los Lagos
语种英语
来源期刊Natural Hazards
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/205689
作者单位Engineering Science Department, Universidad Andrés Bello, Av. Antonio Varas 880, Providencia, Santiago, Chile; Industrial Engineering Department, Universidad Católica de la Santísima Concepción, Alonso de Ribera 2850, Concepción, Chile
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Favereau M.,Robledo L.F.,Bull M.T.. Homeostatic representation for risk decision making: a novel multi-method simulation approach for evacuation under volcanic eruption[J],2020,103(1).
APA Favereau M.,Robledo L.F.,&Bull M.T..(2020).Homeostatic representation for risk decision making: a novel multi-method simulation approach for evacuation under volcanic eruption.Natural Hazards,103(1).
MLA Favereau M.,et al."Homeostatic representation for risk decision making: a novel multi-method simulation approach for evacuation under volcanic eruption".Natural Hazards 103.1(2020).
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