气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Characterizing spatiotemporal trends in extreme precipitation in Southeast Texas

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DOI	10.1007/s11069-020-04235-x
	Characterizing spatiotemporal trends in extreme precipitation in Southeast Texas
	Fagnant C.; Gori A.; Sebastian A.; Bedient P.B.; Ensor K.B.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0921030X
起始页码	1597
结束页码	1621
卷号	104 期号:2
英文摘要	Rainfall extreme value analysis provides information that has been crucial in characterizing risk, designing successful infrastructure systems, and ultimately protecting people and property from the threat of rainfall-induced flooding. However, in the Houston region recent events (such as the unprecedented rainfall wrought by Hurricane Harvey) have highlighted the inability of existing analyses to accurately characterize current climate conditions. Specifically, there has been little research investigating how spatial patterns of extreme precipitation have shifted through time in the Texas Gulf Coast region, which has led to mis-characterization of existing intensity–duration–frequency curves. This study investigates spatiotemporal trends in extreme precipitation in southeast Texas using a statistical approach for peaks-over-threshold modeling that employs a generalized Pareto distribution. Precipitation data from over 600 rain gauges across the region are analyzed in 40-year time windows to evaluate shifts in distribution parameters and extreme rainfall levels through time. Spatial analysis of these trends focuses on highlighting regions with increasing, stationary, and decreasing extreme rainfall through time. Results demonstrate heterogeneity in spatiotemporal trends across the entire study region, but significant increases in extreme rainfall over the Houston urban area. Spatial analysis of these trends focuses on how extreme rainfall has changed within different watersheds. Return level estimates of extreme rainfall values are also compared to the current standards for Harris County. Results from this study identify areas that have experienced significant shifts in extreme rainfall, and can help inform where design standards may be inaccurate or outdated. © 2020, The Author(s).
关键词	Extreme Flooding Generalized Pareto Precipitation Rainfall Return level
英文关键词	climate conditions; flooding; precipitation (climatology); precipitation intensity; rainfall; raingauge; spatial analysis; spatiotemporal analysis; trend analysis; urban area; Harris County [Texas]; Houston County [Texas]; Texas; United States
语种	英语
来源期刊	Natural Hazards
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/205684
作者单位	Department of Statistics, Rice University, Houston, TX, United States; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Rice University, Houston, TX, United States; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States; Department of Marine Sciences, Center for Texas Beaches and Shores, Texas A&M University at Galveston, Galveston, TX, United States; Department of Geological Sciences, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Fagnant C.,Gori A.,Sebastian A.,et al. Characterizing spatiotemporal trends in extreme precipitation in Southeast Texas[J],2020,104(2).
APA	Fagnant C.,Gori A.,Sebastian A.,Bedient P.B.,&Ensor K.B..(2020).Characterizing spatiotemporal trends in extreme precipitation in Southeast Texas.Natural Hazards,104(2).
MLA	Fagnant C.,et al."Characterizing spatiotemporal trends in extreme precipitation in Southeast Texas".Natural Hazards 104.2(2020).