气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Capabilities of multivariate Bayesian inference toward seismic hazard assessment

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s11069-020-04122-5
	Capabilities of multivariate Bayesian inference toward seismic hazard assessment
	Dhulipala S.L.N.; Flint M.M.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0921030X
起始页码	3123
结束页码	3144
卷号	103 期号:3
英文摘要	Multivariate Bayesian inference can bring significant benefits to seismic hazard analysis: its multivariate feature enables computing scalar and vector hazard without making any approximations; Correlations between intensity measures are implicitly modeled, permitting direct simulation of ground motion selection tools such as the conditional mean spectrum and the generalized conditioning intensity measure. Its updating feature enables a seamless integration of new ground motion data into the hazard results. In this paper, we first develop a multivariate Bayesian ground motion model through the NGA-West2 database. The model functional form considers fault type, magnitude and distance dependencies, and also the linear and the rock intensity-dependent site response. We use a hybrid Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling to perform Bayesian inference consisting of Gibbs step and a multilevel Metropolis–Hastings step. We then perform several checks on the model to ensure that it is unbiased. Finally, we illustrate the merits of this multivariate Bayesian analysis through practical and contemporary examples, which include: ground motion model updating with ground motion data recorded in the last four years and not part of the NGA-West2 database; computation of scalar and vector seismic hazard using the un-updated and updated ground motion models for Los Angeles, CA; and simulation of the conditional mean spectrum under scalar and vector IM conditioning while accounting for different sources of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties. © 2020, This is a U.S. Government work and not under copyright protection in the US; foreign copyright protection may apply.
关键词	Bayesian inference Ground motion modeling Markov chain Monte Carlo Performance-based earthquake engineering Seismic hazard
英文关键词	Bayesian analysis; correlation; ground motion; hazard assessment; Markov chain; Monte Carlo analysis; multivariate analysis; numerical model; seismic hazard
语种	英语
来源期刊	Natural Hazards
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/205663
作者单位	Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho Falls, ID 83402, United States; Civil and Environmental Engineering, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA 24061, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Dhulipala S.L.N.,Flint M.M.. Capabilities of multivariate Bayesian inference toward seismic hazard assessment[J],2020,103(3).
APA	Dhulipala S.L.N.,&Flint M.M..(2020).Capabilities of multivariate Bayesian inference toward seismic hazard assessment.Natural Hazards,103(3).
MLA	Dhulipala S.L.N.,et al."Capabilities of multivariate Bayesian inference toward seismic hazard assessment".Natural Hazards 103.3(2020).